My EliteXC: Heat Predictions

Kimbo Slice vs. Ken Shamrock

This is the crappiest main event I have ever seen in a big show.  I know that Kimbo and Shamrock are big draws because of their names, but these guys would be on the undercard of a UFC event if it was based on talent levels alone.  This fight is another gimme for Kimbo, but if Shamrock can take Kimbo down I think he can win and ground and pound him some.  I am torn with how to pick this fight.  The EliteXC is pulling for Kimbo and if he loses it will kill EliteXC.  Shamrock is old and has lost his last five fights.  He is on his way out of the fight game.  I would think he would want to win badly here though.  I am rooting for Ken in this one.  Kimbo’s cardio will be an issue as will his groudn game.  No doubt he can strike and hit hard, but Shamrock is very well experienced.  With that said, I still think Kimbo wins this fight by KO, however I wouldn’t bet any money on Kimbo. 

Jake Shields vs. Paul Daley

I believe Jake Shields is a top 5 welterweight in the world.  I’d love to see him against top notch competition, which he won’t get in EliteXC.  Paul Daley is a good fighter, but I do not think he is on Jake Shields’ level.  I think his previous opponent, Nick Thompson was tougher than Daley.  I look for a entertaining fight that ends with a first or second round submission victory for Jake Shields.

Anrdei Arlovski vs. Roy Nelson

I’d be shocked if this fight is competitive.  Arlovski will be much quicker and much more talented all around.  Don’t get me wrong, Roy Nelson can bang, but he can’t bang with Arlovski.  If I was Arlovski, I would box him and then take him down and ground and pound the big bellied former IFL champ.  I think Arlovski’s speed and all around skills will be too much for Nelson.  I pick Arlovski to win by second round TKO.

Gina Carano vs. Kelly Kobald

It is hard to pick against Gina Carano.  Quite honestly, I know nothing about Kelly Kobald, but I like Gina Carano.  I am not a huge fan of women’s MMA, but I could watch Carano all day long.  I hope Carano wins and that the fight with her and Cyborg will be set up.  I think Carano is well trained and now re-focused.  I just hope she makes weight.  I think it will stop in round 2 with ref stoppage or rear naked choke.

Murilo “Ninja” Rua vs. Benjo Radach

I hope this fight makes the CBS televised section because Ninja is a great fighter.  He is in his brother’s shadow, but he is good.  It appears that Villasenor will get the next title shot at Robbie Lawler on November 8, but Rua is in the mix as well.  I would think that it is possible that if Ninja wins here he could take on Frank Shamrock at the next EliteXC on CBS event for the number 1 contender spot.  I think Ninja wins this by unanimous decision. 

Cristiane Cyborg vs. Yoko Takahashi

This fight won’t be televised, but I think Cyborg will dominate.  First round KO.

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MMA News: Andrei Arlovski vs. Roy Nelson at EliteXC on CBS October 4

It looks like Andrei Arlovski and Ben Rothwell will not wait for Affliction.  Arlovski was slated to fight Josh Barnett before the Affliction card was postponed.  I guess he could be ready for the January card as well, but Arlovski will take on Roy Nelson at EliteXC: Heat on October 4. 

Sherdog.com reports:

At least two fighters will not sit on the sidelines following the postponement of Affliction’s Oct. 4 “Day of Reckoning” event in Las Vegas.

Former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski (13-5) and IFL kingpin Roy Nelson (13-2) have been offered a heavyweight bout at EliteXC “Heat” Oct. 4 at the BankAtlantic Center in Sunrise, Fla. The event will be aired live on CBS.

Arlovski’s management team would not comment Wednesday on the proposed bout, while Nelson’s attorney, Rod Donohoo, also refrained from remarks. However, Sherdog.com has learned from separate sources that both fighters have agreed in principle to the match and that contracts have been issued for review.

The last-minute addition will be presented as an Affiction-EliteXC co-promoted fight

This really solidifies this card which has fights with Kimbo Slice and Ken Shamrock, Gina Carano and Kelly Kobald, Jake Shields and Paul Daley, and Murilo Rua and Benji Radach.

Evaluating Affliction

One of the questions that I keep thinking about is whether or not Affliction in here to stay and whether or not they will compete with the UFC.  No one disagrees that UFC is the standard of MMA right now, but Affliction is making up ground quickly.  It has been a tell tale sign of a slight change that Affliction has signed so many guys lately including many of the stars from the now defunt IFL, which was bought by the parent company of the UFC, Zuffa.  Affliction has signed Champs Roy Nelson and Vladimir Matyushenko.  They have signed lightweight star Chris Horodecki and are rumored to have welterweight champ Jay Hieron.  Affliction is cleaning up the free agents and doing better in that regard than even the UFC as of late.  So, what is there to judge a promotion…

1. Fighter Talent – Fight promotions are fight promotions.  There are other factors that come into play, but primarily if a promotion does not have top level talent they will not stay relevant.

2. Show Quality –  While good fighters is essential, the promotion must put on a good show.  They must entertain fans.  This includes exciting fights, good commentators and a solid show production.  Promotions have to build shows people will come to or buy.

3.  Solid Managment –  Managment is important to a fight promotion, not just anyone can do it.  A promotion may suceed or fail based ont he business savvy of the fight promoter or president.  The PR, fighter pay, contracts, TV deals, etc. all come into play here.

With that said, let’s see how Affliction is doing…

1. Fighter Talent…

There is a lot of hype around Affliction’s fighter talent.  Here is who I can think of off hand that they have and will use on their cards

  • Fedor Emelianenko
  • Andrei Arlovski
  • Josh Barnett
  • Tim Sylvia
  • Ben Rothwell
  • Roy Nelson
  • Pedro Rizzo
  • Paul Buentello
  • Aleksander Emelianenko
  • Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
  • Tito Ortiz
  • Vladimir Matyushenko
  • Renato “Babalu” Sobral
  • Mike Whitehead
  • Edwin DeWees
  • Vernon White
  • Vitor Belfort
  • Matt Lindland
  • Jay Hieron
  • Mike Pyle
  • J.J. Ambrose
  • Chris Horodecki

I went to HDNet’s Rankings to see how many Affliction Fighters were ranked in the top 100 pound for pound or top in their divisons  here is the results.

(Pound for Pound Rank, Divison Rank)

  • Fedor Emelianenko (2, 1)
  • Andrei Arlovski (25, 4)
  • Josh Barnett (27, 5)
  • Tim Sylvia (55, 7)
  • Ben Rothwell (81, 12)
  • Roy Nelson (84, 13)
  • Pedro Rizzo (NR, 19)
  • Paul Buentello (NR, NR)
  • Aleksander Emelianenko (76, 10)
  • Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (85, 13)
  • Tito Ortiz (87, 15)
  • Vladimir Matyushenko (66, 12)
  • Renato “Babalu” Sobral (92, 16)
  • Mike Whitehead (NR, NR)
  • Edwin DeWees (NR, NR)
  • Vernon White (NR, NR)
  • Vitor Belfort (NR, NR) – Unfairly I’d admit
  • Matt Lindland (22, 5)
  • Jay Hieron (59, 11)
  • Mike Pyle (NR, NR)
  • J.J. Ambrose (NR, NR)
  • Chris Horodecki (NR, NR)
  • Put this into perspective, out of the top 100 the promotions faires like this in pound for pound top 100 fighters…

    • UFC -39
    • Affliction – 13
    • DREAM -12
    • WEC – 10
    • EliteXC – 10
    • Strikeforce – 5
    • World Victory Road – 3

    The point is that Affliction’s talent is overrated. 

    • They are right about the level of DREAM talent wise
    • They are no where near the talent level of the UFC
    • 10 of the Affliction guys that appeared on the rankings list have fought in the UFC before.  Some have been sucessful.  There are several former UFC champs (Sylvia, Barnett, Rizzo, Ortiz and Arlovski), however most of them did no better than fair in the UFC (see Matyushenko, Hieron, et. al)
    • Most of the top Affliction guys are in the second half of their careers and are past their prime.  They still have fight left in them, don’t get me wrong, but not for the long haul
    • What happens if two or three of those gusy get injured?  Affliction is hanging their hat on Fedor, Barnett, Arlovski and Ortiz.  They cannot keep putting everyone on every card, they will run out of match-ups.
    • To their credit, they can put on good fights.  The talent isn’t bad.  Their guys can fight exciting fighter, but they have exciting fights at tough man competitions. They need to sign younger talent and more talent.

    Show Quality…

    • I cannot judge them solely on their sole show.  Affliction needs to improve their show quality as far as commentating, interviews and production is concerned
    • Also, I thought with the exception of the last 3 fights the card wasn’t what it was billed to be
    • They are nowhere near the UFC level as far as enjoyability to watch

    Solid Managment:

    • The UFC with Dana White and the Fertitas is still the managment standard.  I have problems with the UFC and Dana White’s managing style.  I don’t like his constant expletives, I don’t like the way he trashes other promotions, I don’t like the stubborness he exhibits with signing guys like Lindland and Barnett, and even Fedor.  However, Dana is crafty.  Atencio is no Dana White.  Watch his video below where he can’t remember Josh Barnett’s name and he is the main event for the second show. 
    • Affliction does have the deep pocketed Donald Trump behind them which helps.  Trump is a business guiness, but he doesn’t neccessarily know MMA.  The money helps thought he same way it helped having Lorezon and Frank in the UFC early days when they lost tons of money.

    Here is the point folks…Affliction is a solid upstart company.  They may be around for a while, but before we jump ont he bandwagon and label them peers to the UFC and competitors to the UFC let them get through a few shows first.  Let’s see how much money they lose after 3 events.  Let’s see how many fights they can do after 3 card.  They could compete, but as for now it is the UFC and then everyone else.  Zuffa is sitting pretty in the MMA world.  They are the big leagues, everything else is just the minors.  Affliction, EliteXC and DREAM are in the same boat and in a year from now at least one of them will be non-existent.

    Best Non-UFC Fighters

    Here are the best non-UFC fighters.  This shows where the UFC is stacked and where they lack.  There competition is mainly in Affliction at heavyweight and DREAM at lightweight.  Here are the best non-UFC guys that the UFC should look to sign if possible. 

    Rank

    Heavyweight

    Light Heavy

    Middleweight

    Welterweight

    Lightweight

    1

    Fedor Emelianenko

    Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

    Paulo Filho

    Jake Shields

    Takanori Gomi

    2

    Andrei Arlovski

    Ricardo Arona

    Matt Lindland

    Carlos Condit

    Shinya Aoki

    3

    Josh Barnett

    Rafael Feijao

    Robbie Lawler

    Jay Hieron

    JZ Calvancante

    4

    Tim Sylvia

    Vladimir Matyushenko

    Kazuo Misaki

    Nick Thompson

    Eddie Alvarez

    5

    Ben Rothwell

    Babalu Sobral

    Gegard Mousasi

    Mach Sakurai

    Mitsuhiro Ishida

    6

    Mirko Cro Cop

    Tito Ortiz

    Vitor Belfort

    Mike Pyle

    Joachim Hansen

    7

    Roy Nelson

    Steve Cantwell

     “Jacare” de Sousa

     

    Tatsuya Kawajiri

    8

    Aleks Emelianenko

    Brian Stann

    Jason Miller

     

    Josh Thomson

    9

    Antonio Silva

     

    Melvin Manhoef

     

    Gilbert Melendez

    10

    Alistair Overeem

     

    Murilio Rua

     

    Vitor Ribeiro

    11

     

     

    Cung Le

     

    Jamie Varner

    12

     

     

    Denis Kang

     

    Ryan Schultz

    13

     

     

    Joey Villasenor

     

    KJ Noons

    14

     

     

    Frank Shamrock

     

    Nick Diaz

    15

     

     

    Yoshihiro Akiyama

     

    Caol Uno

    16

     

     

    Jorge Santiago

     

     

    17

     

     

    Chael Sonnen

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    MMA News: Roy Nelson vs. Jay White at Affliction 2

    Former IFL heavyweight champion Roy Nelson appears to be taking on Jay White at Affliction 2: Day of Reckoning.  Roy Nelson has apparently been signed with Affliction following the demise of the IFL.  This is a pretty amazing class of heavyweights when you think about it: Fedor Emelianenko, Andrei Arlovski, Josh Barnett, Ben Rothwell, Aleksander Emelianenko, Pedro Rizzo, Paul Buentello, Tim Sylvia, and now Roy Nelson.  Affliction is nearing a monopoly on the heavyweight divison almost to the extent that the UFC has in the light heavyweight and welterweight divisons. 

    This fight comes on the heels of learning that the main event will not be Fedor vs. Arlovski, but rather will be Arlovski vs. Barnett.

    UFC News: Zuffa Buys IFL

    It has been rumored for a few weeks that Zuffa was going to buy the International Fight League (IFL), now it seems offifical.  we assumed it was going to happen with several clues.  First, came the announcment that the IFL was for sale for $1,000,000 and that Zuffa was the leading suitor.  Then came the July 19th card featuring IFL fighters such as Reese Andy, Brad Blackburn and Rory Markham.  Also, during the SPIKE telecast of the UFC Fight Night 14 card IFL footage was used and talked about openly, something the UFC had not done before.  Then came the rumor that  the UFC signed Jim and Dan Miller.  Here is a word from IFL Senior Vice President of Communications Joe Favorito:

    I apologize for this mass email but I wanted to take a second to let you know that as of July 31 my role at the IFL will be no more as the company goes into its final stage of being sold and/or closed down. We are very proud of what we did here in just over two years, building a brand from nothing into something that people in the industry and outside of the industry actually noticed, and I enjoyed working with so many different people and helped tell some great stories. At the end of the day sometimes the finances don’t make sense, but it certainly wasn’t for lack of trying. The good news is I think we have gotten all our good junior people placed in some great spots, so we are pretty proud of that. Even our interns landed in good places

    That is nothing shocking.  Again, the focus now will be where do the 10-15 top guys from the IFL land.  There is some news on that front.  The IFL lightweight champion Ryan Schultz seems to have landed with World Victory Road, as he is slated to appear on their Sengoku 4 card, which is a lightweight grand prix.  That is a pretty good indicator that he will not land with Zuffa.  Also, MMAjunkie says that Chris Horodecki is in negotions with the American Fight League.  I am sure ZUffa will sign more fighters and they will go between the UFC and WEC.  I would imagine that means that the UFC will focus on Roy Nelson, Vladimir Matyushenko, and Jay Hieron, while the WEC has to crave Waggney Fabiano at 145 lbs.

    Rumor: UFC Looking to Buy IFL

    It is not a secret that the IFL has been up for sale.  The supposed asking price: $1,000,000.  The most likely buyer seems to be Zuffa, the parent company of the UFC and WEC.  The rumor has been that the UFC has been in talks with IFL.  For a long time Dana White has been critical and wary of the IFL.  Recently though many fighters have tried their hand at the UFC.  Several IFL guys were cast for TUF 7 including: Gerald Harris, Mike Dolce, and Dante Rivera.  Several others were picked to fight at the UFC Fight Night held to combat Affliction: Banned including stars Brad Blackburn, Reese Andy, and Rory Markham.  Markham and Blackburn both looked very good in wins in their octagon debuts.  The rumors have been fueled following the fight night.  Many people speculated that since Rogan and Goldberg talked openly about the IFL and IFL videos were shown that the UFC could have bought the IFL.  It seems most likely that the IFL is done. This from CagePotato:

    Despite Dana White’s love of criticizing every aspect of the IFL and citing them as a cautionary tale for MMA startups, it seems fighter contracts and an extensive video library are just too attractive for him to pass up. According to a report on MMA Payout, Zuffa is very close to buying the IFL.

    The deal isn’t finalized, says Sam Caplan, but this is the most credible report thus far regarding the potential purchase of the IFL. The company was said to be on the market for around $1 million, but the UFC is believed to be getting it for less than that. Sources within the IFL could only confirm for us that the talks have been under way for some time now and the UFC is the leading suitor.

     The rumor has been that the IFL fighters would be split between the UFC and WEC.  Some would become free agents.  Here are the msot attractive fighters to Zuffa. 

    1. Waggney Fabiano – 145 Lbs.  (He is the IFL Fetaherweight champ and would make a good competition for Urijah Faber in the WEC.

    2. Roy Nelson – HVWT.  (He is the IFL heavyweight Champ and would likely be given a shot in the UFC, but I don’t know how he’d fair against UFC fighters)

    3.  Ryan Schultz – 155 lbs. (He is the IFC Lightweight Champ, and may be better suited for the WEC)

    4. Chris Horodecki – 155 lbs. (I think he could hack the UFC, but 155 is stacked)

    5. Jim Miller – 155 lbs. (He has been rumored to be on TUF 8 cast as a lightweight, but I don’t but that)

    6. Jay Hieron – 170 lbs. (He is the IFL Welterweight Champ, he has been in the UFC, but he may have impreved since his stint there)

    7. Ryan McGivern

    8. Matt Horowich

    9. Vladimir Matyushenko

    10. Dan Miller