MMABlog’s Lightweight MMA Rankings

Rank	Name	Organization	Next Fight
1	B.J. Penn	UFC	St. Pierre (#1 WW) 1/31
2	Takanori Gomi	World Victory Road	Golyaev (NR), 11/1
3	Shinya Aoki	DREAM
4	Eddie Alvarez	EliteXC?
5	Sean Sherk	UFC	T. Griffin (#15), 9/25
6	Mitsuhiro Ishida	DREAM/Strikeforce
7	Tatsuya Kawajiri	DREAM
8	Kenny Florian	UFC	Stevenson (#10), 11/15
9	Josh Thomson	Strikeforce	Edwards (NR), 11/21
10	Joe Stevenson	UFC	Florian (#8), 11/15
11	Gesias Calvancante	DREAM
12	Joachim Hansen	DREAM
13	Gilbert Melendez	Strikeforce
14	Jamie Varner	WEC
15	Tyson Griffin	UFC	Sherk (#5), 9/25
16	Roger Huerta	UFC
17	Gray Maynard	UFC	Clementi (NR), 9/25
18	Frank Edgar	UFC	Wiman (NR), 12/10
19	Vitor Ribeiro
20	Nate Diaz	UFC
21	K.J. Noons	EliteXC?
22	Joe Lauzon	UFC
23	Nick Diaz	EliteXC
24	Spencer Fisher	UFC	Gugerty (NR), 9/25
25	Caol Uno	DREAM

 

Others Considered: Clay Guida, Hermes Franca, Marcus Aurelio, Jim Miller, Jorge Masvidal , Rich Clementi, Matt Wiman, and Mac Danzig.

UFC News: Rich Clementi vs. Gray Maynard at UFC 90

It looks like the UFC is planning on adding another bout to UFC 90 and this another lightweight bout.  The bout is sure to feature Rich Clementi who has been bith busy and impressive in 2008.  His likely opponent will be Gray Maynard.  This could be a very significant bout as the winner will likely move into the top 10 in the UFC lightweight divison.  In my opinion Maynard may already be there following his big win over high ranking contender Frankie Edgar.  In that bout Maynard was impresssive but suffered a broken hand.  He should be fine and ready to go.

Mid Year MMA Awards

Best Knockout

Honorable Mention: Luis Arthur Cane KO Jason Lambert, Shane Carwin KO Christian Wellish, Murilio Rua TKO Tony Bonello, Matt Wiman KO Thiago Tavares

5. Anthony Johnson KO Tommy Speer

4. Wilson Gouveia KO Jason Lambert

3. Brian Stann KO Doug Marshall

2. James Irvin KO Houston Alexander

1. Wanderlei Silva KO Keith Jardine

Best Submission

Honorable Mention: Antonio Nogueira submits Tim Sylvia by Guillotine, Yoshiyuki Yoshida submits Jon Koppenhaver by Anaconda choke, Nate Diaz submits Kurt Pellegrino, Cole Miller Submits Jorge Gurgel by Triangle Choke

5. Demian Mia Submits Ed Herman by Triangle Choke

4. Frank Mir Submits Brock Lesnar by Kneebar

3. Rousimar Palhares Submits Ivan Salaverry by Armbar

2. Dustin Hazelett Submits Josh Burkman by Armbar

1. Shinya Aoki Submits Katsuhiko Nagata by Aokiplata

Best Fight

Honorable Mention: Shinya Aoki vs. Gesias Calvancante, Cung Le vs. Frank Shamrock

5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia

4. Urijah Faber vs. Jens Pulver

3. Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith

2. Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin

1. Miguel Torres vs. Yoshiro Maeda

Best Fight Card

5. WEC 34: Faber vs. Pulver

4. UFC 80: Rapid Fire

3. UFC 81: Breaking Point

2. DREAM 4

1. UFC 84: Ill Will

Upset of The Year:

Honorable Mention: Jason Day over Alan Belcher,

5. Thiago Alves over Karo Parisyan

4. Kevin Burns over Roan Carneiro

3. Fabricio Werdum over Gabriel Gonzaga

2. Josh Thomson over Gilbert Melendez

1. Forrest Griffin over Quinton Jackson

Fighter Of The Year:

Honorable Mention: Anderson Silva, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Michael Bisping, Georges St. Pierre, Diego Sanchez

5. Miguel Torres

4. Forrest Griffin

3. Thiago Alves

2. Shinya Aoki

1. B.J. Penn (2 Impressive wins over Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson)

Best UFC Newcomer:

Honorable Mention: Shane Carwin, Brock Lesnar

5. Rousimar Palhares

4. Dong Hyun Kim

3. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

2. Goran Reljic

1. Cain Velasquez

Worst Calls By A Ref. or Judges

5. Forrest Griffin over Quinton Jackson –  Not just that Forrest got the win, but that it was unanimous.  Many, including me scored the fight either a draw or to Jackson

4. Brandon Vera vs. Fabricio Werdum- Dan Miragliotta stopped the fight in round 1 when Werdum was mounted on Vera throwing down punches.  There was just 10 seconds remaining and Vera seemed to be defending himself well. 

3. Nate Marquardt vs. Thales Leites — Leites got the win, but lost the fight.  He lost the fight due to two points taken away from Marquardt.  One point was justified, but the other was due to elbow to the back of the ehad that wasn’t to the back of the head.  I will confess, that another point could have fairly been deducted for an illegal slam, but I hated to see Marquardt get a loss on his record that I feel he won

2. Phantom split decisions — How was Evan Tanner vs. Kendall Grove a split deicsion?  How was Heath Herring vs Cheick Kongo a split decision?  The right person got the decision, but how was it split?

1. Kimbo Slice vs. James Thompson – Dan Miragliotta stopped the fight in the 3rd round while Thompson was still standing and failed to stop it when Thompson was mounted on Kimbo raining down elbows

UFC News: Hermes Franca vs. Frank Edgar at UFC 87

It appears that the UFC has tapped Hermes Franca to fight Frank Edgar at UFC 87.  We knew Edgar was going to be on the card, but we didn’t know who he would fight.  This should make for an interesting fight.  Both guys are coming off of losses.  Edgar lost his last UFC bout to Sean Sherk and then was suspended for testing positive for a banned substance.  He unlike Sherk didn’t appeal and has been serving his one year suspension.  Edgar is coming off of a loss to Gray Maynard.  Honestly, I am surprised by the match making.  I know Edgar is still considered one of the top guys in the UFC lightweight divison, but I hope Gray Maynard gets a quality next opponent as he has proven to be more than capable.  Regardless this should be a good fight.

Also, it was rumored that Mac Danzig would be fighting Clay Guida at UFC 87, however on his website it says,

Forget what you heard! Mac is NOT fighting at UFC 87, or in August at all! Mac will most likely fight in September, and the fight has not yet been signed.

Could this fight be the headliner of UFN 14?  That would sound like a serious possibility.  Also, it would make more sense than UFC 87 seeing as how there are already two lightweight bouts confirmed for UFC 87, including the super bout between Roger Huerta and Kenny Florian and the newly learned Franca vs Edgar fight. 

Tournaments in the UFC

What if UFC had a 16 man tournament.  In other words a little bigegr version of what DREAM is doing with lightweights and middleweights.  A tournament would doa  lot of good things.  It would give an underdog the chance to win and fight the top dog.  You would have to have some type of ranking to do it and seed the guys like with the NCAA basketball tournament.  It would ease match making.  It would give exciting fights and intriguing possibilites.  Can you imagine all the possible scenarios of what could happen and who could fight one another?  I bet guys would fight passionatley.  There would be upsets.  So…I played around and came up with this…I took my 16 top guys in each class and made a bracket.  The fight one winner will fight the fight 2 winner and so on…

Lightweight:

Round One Match ups:

B.J. Penn vs. Rich Clementi

Clay Guida vs. Gray Maynard

Marcus Aurelio vs. Frank Edgar

Kenny Florian vs. Manny Gamburyan

Sean Sherk vs. Spencer Fisher

Nate Diaz vs. Joe Stevenson

Joe Lauzon vs. Tyson Griffin

Roger Huerta vs. Mac Danzig

Welterweight:

Georges St. Pierre vs. Chris Lytle

Thiago Alves vs. Mike Swick

Karo Parisyan vs. Matt Serra

Josh Koscheck vs. Ryo Chonan

Jon Fitch vs. Roan Carneiro

Diego Sanchez vs. Luigi Fiorvanti

Marcus Davis vs. Akihiro Gono

Matt Hughes vs. Chris Wilson

Middleweight:

Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites

Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Quarry

Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida

Yushin Okami vs. Demian Maia

Rich Franklin vs. Evan Tanner

Nate Marquardt vs. Jason MacDonald

Chris Leben vs. Michael Bisping

Dan Henderson vs. Jorge Rivera

Light Heavyweight:

Quinton Jackson vs. Goran Reljic

Mauricio Shogun Rua vs. Matt Hammil

Wanderlei Silva vs. Sokoudjou

Chuck Liddell vs. Houston Alexander

Keith Jardine vs. Jame Irvin

Forrest Griffin vs. Wilson Gouveia

Thiago Silva vs. Rashad Evans

Lyoto Machida vs. Stephan Bonnar

Heavyweight:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Dan Evenson

Cheick Kongo vs. Eddie Sanchez

Heath Herring vs. Cain Velasquez

Frank Mir vs. Christian Wellish

Fabricio Werdum vs. Antoni Hardonk

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin

Brock Lesnar vs. Justin McCully

Brandon Vera vs. Neil Wain

 

This all could make some interesting match-ups.  What you would do would be take all five divisons and make 5 fight cards with 8 fights each.  You could split them up or have a “lightweight card”.  5 cards would finish round one.  Then you could have two 10 fight card and that would finish round two.  Then you could have another card that would do the semi-final match ups and another card for the championships.  Try making an un-televised undercard out of any of these fights.  That would be awesome.  Of course you could put more thought into match ups and potential second and third round “dream match up” in where you placed fighters, but it is a great idea.  The one flaw is that if the UFC had one card a month this tournament would take 9 months to finish and that would keep a lot of fighters from fighting in that time.  I guess you could break it up and have non-tournament fights mixed in there too.  Just food for thought…

UFC’s Best Divison

I went to HDnet’s fighter rankings and based this on which UFC weight divisons had the most top 20 fighters.  I know there are other ways to judge the best, but this is interesting…

1. Light Heavyweights –  They are stacked in the UFC.  This is where the light heavyweight competition lies.  They have the top 11 (Jackson, Henderson, Griffin, Liddell, Jardine, Machida, Wanderlei, Evans, Thiago Silva, and Sokodjou) guys in the world and 20 of the top 25 guys.  This is a great divison, full of star power.

2. Welterweights – They have 10 of the top 20 (St. Pierre, Fitch, Hughes, Serra, Koscheck, Sanchez, Alves, Parisyan, Davis and Gono), but 8 of the world’s top ten.  They have a near top ten monopoly only missing out on Shields and Condit.  I feel that there are other UFC guys to mention in top 20 talk (Chris Wilson and Chris Lytle), but the divison is strong and has the top tier welterweights in the world.

3. Lightweights – In most rankings the UFC gets cheated in the lightweight divison.  The system I used ranked 8 of their guys as top 20 in the world (Penn, Sherk, Huerta, Stevenson, Florian, Guida, Tyson Griffin, and Gray Maynard).  I know some of those other guys are good, but they are overrated.  Gomi can’t beat UFC guys.  Nick Diaz, B.J. Penn and Marcus Aurelo all beat him.  Aoki, Melendez, Calvancanti and bunch are unproven in my opinion against top guys.  Plus I feel some guys unfairly got left out of rankings.  Where is Marcu Aurelio?  FranK Edgar?  or Joe Lauzon?  or even Nate Diaz?  You mean to tell me Edgar is not a top 20?  This divison is stacked and has more contenders than any UFC divison.  DREAM does have some great lightweights.  I’d love to see a fight card of UFC’s top lightweights against DREAM’s top lightweights.  I think UFC would win easily.

4. Middleweights – They have 7 of the top 20 fighters in the world at this divison (Anderson Silva, Rich Franklin, Dan Hemderson, Marquardt, Okami, Bisping and Leites.  I put this above heavyweights first of all because I believe there are some guys that could be in the top 20 mix (Quarry, MacDonald, Leben, Cote, Kampmann and Almeida). It still is weak, not because it isn’t deep, but because they can’t find anyone to compete with Anderson Silva.  Anderson Silva is the second reason I put this divison above Heavyweights…enough said.

5. Heavyweights –  They also have 7 of the top 20 fighters in the world at Heavyweight  (Nogueira, Werdum, Gonzaga, Kongo, Vera, Mir and Herring).  Only 3 of those guys are top ten in the world.  All this assumed Arlovski signs with Affiction.  If that happens Affliction will have 6 of the top ten (Fedor, Sylvia, Barnett, Rothwell, Arlovski and Aleksander Emelianenko) plus Pedro Rizzo.  This is a weak divison for the UFC, but they do have some good prospects in Carwin, Lesnar and Velasquez.  This divison was once strong, but since has lost Couture, Cro Cop, Sylvia, Arlovski, and O’Brien.

The Stars of the UFC

There is a recent shift in stars of the UFC.  Those stars are the great investments, the money makers. The stars are not necessarily your best fighters, but they are well liked by the fans and they draw a crowd.  The stars are the people that the UFC will market and set up to be successful.  The stars get the most money and the best fights.  The stars have a louder voice with the UFC brass.  Some of those stars have been discontent like Randy Couture, Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski and Tito Ortiz.  Those guys leaving hurts the UFC.  The guys the UFC recognizes as their stars are the ones they need to cater to more.  The stars are prized in all MMA organizations.  The WEC has Filho, Faber, Condit, and Stann.  PRIDE had Fedor, Cro Cop, Barnett, Wanderlai, Dan Henderson, Gomi, Arona, Shogun and the Nogueira brothers.  EliteXC has Lawler, Kimbo, Frank Shamrock, and Carano.  Strikeforce has Gilbert Melendez and Cung Le.  The stars are not always the champs, but they may be.  In the UFC there is a shift.  The old guard is moving on.  They are still there, and still draw a crowd and are still good PPV fights, but in a few years will be gone.  The old guard consisted of Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture, Ken Shamrock, Tito Ortiz and Matt Hughes.  There is a star level, then there is a second tier level of guys you want to hold onto at all costs, who have a following, and then there is the emerging star tier. Then you have your great fighters who perform in the octagon are respected, but may not have the charisma to be the face of the organization.  These guys can win and hold belts, but they won’t be the Chuck Liddell’s.  This system explains why the UFC gives a title shot and coaches spot to Forrest Griffin, who i no way has earned the title of number 1 contender.  He is good, but not that good.  He may eventually earn that, but this is premature.  Why did he get it?  Because he is popular.  He will sell PPVs and people will watch TUF because of him.  Personality will carry a guy a long way, just look at the Houston Alexander bandwagon. A lack of personality will hurt a guy, just ask Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt, who if they had the charisma would be stars because they have the ability.  These guys can move up and down these different levels, but some guys have already been crowed as stars and can do little to harm that.  Your stars are the guys you hold on to at all costs.  Your second tier you want to keep because they are your contenders and can become stars.  Your third tier you be careful with because they can become stars if you play your cards right.  Your fourth tier are some of the best fighters, they put on good fights, they win fight night bonuses and they should be signed and kep in the organization if you can.  The effect of a star leaving the UFC is much greater than when someone else does.  The UFC is hurt by loosing their four biggest heavyweight stars Couture, Cro Cop, Arlovski and Sylvia.  The UFC is not so much hurt by loosing Jake O’Brien.  It would be nice to keep O’Brien, but if you can’t you move on.  Also, you sign MMA free agents based on this tier.  I and many others consider Fedor for example a star level guy, an instant smash hit and a great investment.  You pay him well, but he will make you money.  Dana White apparently considered him second tier, and didn’t sign him.  My opinion you give the Fedors and the Couture and the Liddells whatever they want.  My system looks like this:

UFC’s Stars:

• Anderson Silva
• Georges St. Pierre
• B.J. Penn
• Rich Franklin
• Chuck Liddell
• Quinton “Rampage” Jackson
• Forrest Griffin
• Tito Ortiz
• Matt Hughes
• Wanderlai Silva

Second Level: UFC’s Near Stars:

• Brandon Vera
• Matt Serra
• Jon Fitch
• Diego Sanchez
• Dan Henderson
• Josh Koscheck
• Sean Sherk
• Kenny Florian
• Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
• Rashad Evans
• Michael Bisping
• Joe Stevenson
• Gabriel Gonzaga
• Chris Leben
• Karo Parisyan
• Clay Guida

Third Level: The UFC’s Emerging Stars:

• Brock Lesnar
• Roger Huerta
• Mac Danzig
• Joe Lauzon
• Cain Velasquez

Fourth Level: UFC’s Stud Fighters, but Not Stars:

• Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
• Fabricio Werdum
• Keith Jardine
• Frank Mir
• Thiago Silva
• Heath Herring
• Lyoto Machida
• Marcus Aurelio
• Yushin Okami
• Marcus Davis
• Patrick Cote
• Evan Tanner
• Stephan Bonnar
• Martin Kampmann
• Marvin Eastman
• Ricardo Almeida
• Mike Swick
• Thiago Tavares
• Nate Quarry
• Wilson Gouveia
• Nate Marquardt
• Kauhiro Nakamura
• Jason MacDonald
• Demian Maia
• Thiago Alves
• Thales Leites
• Frank Edgar
• Matt Hammil
• Nate Diaz
• Akihiro Gono
• Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
• Gray Maynard
• Hermes Franca
• Cheick Kongo
• Din Thomas
• Spencer Fisher
• Tyson Griffin

Note: The reality show really helped some of these fighters draw a fan base, because people saw them on TUF they root for them to suceed in their careers

Which TUF Season Produced the Best Fighters?

1. TUF 1

TUF 1 saved the UFC.  Dana White acknowledges that the finale fight of Bonnar vs. Griffin was a defining UFC moment, perhaps that is why Griffin is getting a title shot.  In this season you have 2 or 3 guys that could hold a title eventually.  Kenny Florian is looking dominant.  Diego and Josh both are doing well as is Mike Swick in the welterweight divison.  Chris Leben may never win a title, but he is winning a lot.   

Notable Alumni: Forrest Griffin, Stephan Bonnar, Mike Swick, Diego Sanchez, Josh Koscheck, Kenny Florian, Nate Quarry, and Chris Leben

2. TUF 2

This may not have as many stud fighters as season 1, but season 2 was good and produced 4 serious contenders (Stevenson, Marcus Davis, Keith Jardine, and Rashad Evans).   

Notable Alumni: Joe Stevenson, Luke Cummo, Josh Burkman, Keith Jardine, Rashad Evans, Marcus Davis, Jorge Gurgel, Melvin Guillard and Rob MacDonald

3. TUF 4

The comeback season was a success.  Travis Lutter lost to Anderson Silva, but still looked good.  We will see how he does against Rich Franklin.  We all know of Matt Serra winning against St. Pierre.  Clementi, Cote and Lytle all have looked good lately.  This season has a lot of names that UFC fans know. 

Notable Alumni: Travis Lutter, Charles McCarthy, Jorge Rivera, Rich Clementi, Pete Sell, Patrick Cote, Matt Serra, Chris Lytle and Din Thomas

4. TUF 5

This season is still developing talent.  However, these lightweights are all contenders. I think this season has 5 or so guys that could be top 15 material in a stacked divison. 

Notable Alumni: Joe Lauzon, Gray Maynard, Nate Diaz, Manny Gamburyan, Matt Wiman, Cole Miller, Corey Hill

5.  TUF 3

Not a bad season, but disappointing as far as how these guys have done after the show.  Bisping has done fair and dropped to middleweight and we will see how he does there.  Matt Hamill may be the success story of this show.  Kendall Grove has fallen hard.  Ed Herman can rise some if he keeps winning.   

Notable Alumni: Kendall Grove, Kalib Starnes, Ed Herman, Micahel Bisping, Matt Hamill

6. TUF 6

This show was the weakest of all.  We will see the effects of it.  In two years there may be two or three guys in the UFC from TUF 6.  Mac Danzig was so much better than everyone else on this season.  George can be decent and do well in the UFC.  Tommy Speer is so raw.  Matt Arroyo has good skills, but we will see.  Guys like Koppenhaver and Rollins have earned some time in the UFC, but I doubt it will last.  Watch for Mac though to climb the lightweight ranks. 

Notable Alumni: Mac Danzig, Tommy Speer, George Sotiropolous

UFN 13 Thoughts

Matt Hamill is a serious contender

One of the things that stands out more than any other was how good Matt Hamill is.  He took some serious shots and he stayed with it.  His wrestling is superior and I believe he could beat nearly anyone in the light heavyweight divison.  I’d like to see Hamill vs. Rashad Evans.  A Evans loss to Chuck and it may happen. 

Nate Diaz is on the rise

Nate Diaz fought a very good Kurt Pellegrino and submitted him with a great triangle choke.  Nate Diaz is for real.  He wants better competition and he will get it.  He better improve standing up though.  Nate Diaz is no slouch, maybe even betetr than his brother.

Tommy Speer is tough, but not a welterweight contender

Tommy Speer has shown that he can take a likin and keep on tickin, but Anthony Johnson demolished him.  He doesn’t seem to have the desire to win.  He will not be a contender at welterweight in the UFC.  WEC anyone?

Gray Maynard is underrated

When the Frank Edgar fight was booked everyone thought it was the end of Gray’s win streak.  I knew it was a bad match up for Frank Edgar.  Gray Maynard is very underrated.  He will continue to rise.  He should continue to get solid competition now.  He moved into my top 15 lightweights, which is a great feat.  I am a Gray Maynard fan.

Joe Lauzon is here to stay

Okay so Joe Lauzon lost, but he looked great in round 1.  I think it was a hair early for the Florian fight.  Joe is still a top ten guy, and showed he can realyl fight.  He will be a star in the UFC.  I’d like to see him fight a Clay Guida, Spencer Fisher or Frank Edgar.

Kenny Florian is getting better and better…and that is scary

Kenny Florian has the worst elbows in MMA.  He is very good and in my opinion is a tough match up for B.J. Penn.  He wants Huerta and all I can say is the Huerta hype would stop there.  Kenny is getting better and better each fight.

Steve Mazagatti is a trigger happy fight stopper

You can complain about the Houston Alexander and Karo stoppage all day long.  I thought the stoppages were a hair early, but honestly Karo and Houston were on their way out anyways.  Steve just saved them the final blows.  This isn’t the first time this has happened.  However, just like when a bad decision comes from the judges you have to finish fights.

Karo Parisyan is no longer in line for a title shot

The debate was who should get the Serra vs. St. Pierre winner.  It was between Karo and Jon Fitch.  Thiago Alves gave us the answer.  Jon Fitch will get the next shot and there cannot be any complaint from loud mouthed Karo.  He got caught thats all there is to say about it.  By the way, didn’t Thiago Alves look good?

The Houston Alexander love fest is officially over

A fast KO of Keith Jardine and one more KO and everyone jumps o the Houston train.  He cannot beat top competiton consistently.  Thiago Silva destroyed him and James Irvin KO’d him in 8 seconds.  The love fest is over.

UFN 13 Predictions

Tommy Speer vs. Anthony Johnson

Tommy Speer looked greated on TUF, however in the finale against Mac Danzig he didn’t look good.  If he can stand with someone and ground and pound them Tommy can beat anyone.  We will see how his training has come since TUF.  If he stick with Hughes it could really help him.  Tommy Speer by unanimous decision.

George Sotiropolous vs. Roman Mitchyan

This is a tough fight to pick because Roman Mitchyan didn’t stay around long enough on TUF due to an injury.  He seems tough as nails and he can beat anyone on the ground.  I almost picked him, but George seemed so good and so confident on TUF.  I pick George by unanimous decision

Manny Gamburyan (Ranked #18) vs. Jeff Cox (unranked)

Okay, well Manny was the TUF runner up and near winner if it wasn’t for an injury, why is he still fighting third tier guys.  All the others on TUF with him are fighting good guys.  Lauzon has Florian.  Maynard has Edgar.  Diaz has Pellegrino.  It is time for Manny to fight better competition.  A win here will force him to fight better people.  I pick Manny Gamburyan via submission late in round 1

Clay Guida (Ranked #9)vs. Samy Schiavo (unranked)

It is amazing how Guida can be beating Roger Huerta senseless for two rounds and then get caught and loose the fight and now Guida is on a UFN undercard fighting an unknown and Huerta is in the title talk.  Guida can fight with anyone.  I pick Guida by TKO in round 2.  He needs to show he can finish this fight.

Din Thomas (Ranked #12) vs. Josh Neer

This isn’t an easy fight.  However, Din Thomas is very good.   I think Din will win in round 2 with a KO.

Marcus Aurelio (Ranked #10) vs. Ryan Roberts (unranked)

The original fight was scheduled to be Aureilo vs. Spencer Fisher.  Obviously this is on paper an easier fight to Auerilo.  I will pick Marcus because he has fight much better competition.  I expect a unanimous decision win, although it is ideal for Marcus to stop the fight quick.  It gets him back in the top ten talk.

Frank Edgar (Ranked #7) vs. Gray Maynard (Ranked #20)

Frank Edgar looked good his last fight, but so did Gray.  I was shocked by this fight.  Gray Maynard has done very well in the UFC, but Edgar is a top five guy.  It seems like a bit too early for this fight for Gray.  That will hurt him, but I would not be shocked if Gray wins.  Both are great wrestlers.  Gray can hit really hard so can Edgar.  I nearly picked Gray for this, but I have to go with Frankie Edgar, who is in and will stay in the title picture with a win.

Nate Diaz (Ranked #16) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (Ranked #14)

Nate has looked really good.  That bite through this lip for Kurt his last fight was sick.  This is going to be a tough fight.  It will do two things.  It will show how good Nate Diaz is and it will show if Kurt Pellegrino belongs further up the rankings.  If Nate is like his brother he will be incosnsitent, however he has potential against anyone.  Both can grapple.  I don’t know how Nate will take a hit.  We will see.  I still pick Nate Diaz via submission in round 3.  Should be a good fight. 

Houston Alexander (Ranked #14) vs. James Irvin (Ranked #19)

The question is was Houston Alexander a fluke?  No doubt he can hit hard and can finish a fight.  It seems he is not a top ten guy yet as Thiago Silva destroyed him.  How will he do against another mid level fighter.  I think Irvin will go to sleep in the first round before the half way point.  So I pick Houston Alexander via KO in round 1.

Matt Hamill (Ranked #15) vs. Tim Boetsch (Ranked #20)

Tim Boetsch looked mean his last fight.  Matt Hamill got cheated his last fight.  I think Hamill is very good.  He has stand up.  He can wrestle better than anyone.  He is good.  I look for him to take Boetsch down and use some ground and pound on him.  Hamill by TKO or Ref Stoppage in round 1. 

Karo Parisyan (Ranked #5) vs. Thiago Alves (Ranked #11)

This may be a good fight.  Karo has looked so good against so many guys.  There is no doubt he is a top level guy.  Thiago Alves is no slouch.  With a win here he will be right there with Jon Fitch in the title shot discussion.  This won’t be a easy win though.  I think in the end though Karo wins by unanimous decision.

Kenny Florian (Ranked #3) vs. Joe Lauzon (Ranked #8)

The hardest fight to pick is the main event.  Both have some experience against elite fighters.  Both have good wins.  Both are long and thing.  Both can wrestle.  Both have great stand up.  Both have brutal elbows.  Both have jiu Jitsu skills.  Honestly, this could be a toss up and should be fight of the night.  Win or loose both these guys are around to stay in the top tier of the divison.  The winner should be in the title shot discussion.  If Florian wins he could get the next shot.  If Lauzon wins, Huerta will get the next shot and Joe will have to win one more.  Both these guys have great training.  I think in the end Joe Lauzon will pull out a win and will catch Kenny in round 2. 

Most possible upset(s): Gray Maynard over Frank Edgar.  Thiago Alves over Karo Parisyan.  Tim Boetsch over Mat Hamill

This fight night has huge implications for the lightweight divison and will sort out a lot of the rankings.  Winners move up, losers move down the rankings.  Nine of the top twenty fighters in my rankings are fighting from the lightweight divison including #3,7,8,9,10,12,14, 16, 20

My UFC Fight Night 12 predictions

Corey Hill vs. Joe Veres

Joe Veres lost to Gray Maynard in 9 second.  Now I do not think Corey Hill is as good as Maynard, but I think he will beat Veres.  I would assume after this fight Joe Veres will hate TUF 5.  I think Corey Hill has real potential in the UFC.  Unlike some of the other TUF 5 guys Corey must win this fight to stay in the UFC.

Matt Wiman vs. Justin Buchholtz

I believe Matt Wiman will give Buchholtz a nice welcome to the UFC and should ink another win in the octagon.

Gray Maynard vs. Dennis Siver

I think Gray is an underrated fighter who made a fantastic decision to train with Randy Couture.  His last fight didn’t last long.  I believe he will win another in the first round.

Cole Miller vs. Jeremy Stephens

To be honest this pick is pure guess work, but I believe the math up shows what the UFC thinks of the TUF 5 fighters.  Joe Lauzon although not the winner is going to be the best to come out of there and the most marketed from season 5, but I believe they think a lot of Manny, Gray Maynard and Cole Miller as they are fighting quality opponents. 

Thiago Tavares vs. Michihiro Omigawa

Tavares came near pulling out a win against Tyson Griffin.  I expect this one to go to Tavares who is a good fighter.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Alberto Crane

Alberto Crane can submit anyone, but I think Pellegrino is too good.  He has fought some of the best and fought them well.  I predict Kurt Pellegrino will win via unanimous decision.

Nate Diaz vs. Alvin Robinson

Robinson posted a good win over Jorge Gurgel.  Nate Diaz is super talented, but I think will be inconsistent.  I still think Nate Diaz will win this fight.  I predict by submission.  Robinson has good submissions, but I doubt he will catch Nate Diaz in a submission. 

Patrick Cote vs. Drew McFedries

Both of these guys have serious knockout power.  A fight like this is tough to pick because one good shot can KO the other guy.  McFedries is far more explosive of a fighter.  Cote has some good wins in the octagon the last coming against the rapidly falling Kendall Grove.  I am going to pick McFedries via KO is round 1.  I expect Drew to come out swining, but he better watch out because Cote can knock you out. 

Mike Swick vs. Josh Burkman

Mike Swick struggled against top level competition in the middleweight divison.  In my opinion the only top quality fighters he fought he lost to (Leben and Okami).  The question is, how will Swick do at welterweight.  He will have a slight size advantage.  I have Swick in my top ten welterweights, but that is being generous.  A win here would make Swick very relevant in this divison.  Burkman is no push over.  His UFC losses are to Karo and Jon Fitch.  That seems to indicate he won’t hang with the top tier guys.  I pick Mike Swick to pull out a win via TKO in round 2. 

The effect of the Ultimate Fighter on the UFC

There is a lot of talk about which UFC divison is the stongest.  I have discussed my opinion before, but I was curious which divison has been best bolstered by TUF. Below I listed each current UFC fighter and their current divison.  Some guys have fought in the UFC and left for other organizations so I did not include them.  Some guys have fought at one weight and dropped down recently like Michael Bisping.  I made my decison based not solely on numer of fighters, but quality fighters and number of contenders in the divison from TUF. Here is my evaluation…

The least bolstered is the Heavyweight divison, because there are no current UFC TUF alumni in that divison.  Evans and Jardine comepeted in Heavyweight and then dropped to lightheavyweight.

The fourth most bolstered is the middleweight divison.  There are 11 TUF alums in the middleweight divison currently and none are real contenders right now.  You have a bunch of second tier guys in: Travis Lutter, Ed Herman, Kendall Grove, Nate Quarry and Patrick Cote.  Some of those guys are close to breaking through to contender levels.  I would say your most succesful guy has been Chris Leben and I believe Michael Bisping will be a contender, but contender is a tough word in a divison where Anderson Silva owns the belt.  I don’t think these guys could beat the top 4 or 5 in that divison.

The third best divison is the lightheavyweight divison.  However, these five guys are all above average guys.  I consider three of them legit contenders in the divison (Griffin, Jardine and Evans) and I consider Bonnar and Hamill the best of the second tier guys.  Bonnar and Hamill are slated to fight in April, the winner will become a serious contender threat and break into the top 12 in that divison.  I put them below the others sheerly because they don’t have as many alums in the divison now.

To be honest the second and first was a toss up between the welterweight and lightweight divisons who have both benefited from TUF competitors dropping to their weight classes.  Here are my arguments for both.  The welterweight divison has a champ in Matt Serra.  Also one could argue that they have 2 other top five fighters in Koscheck and Sanchez, making TUF alums 3 of the top five in that divison.  If you throw Marcus Davis, who is a serious contender is the mix you have some good fighters, not to mention guys like Mike Swick who have just dropped down.  The jury is still out on the TUF 6 guys.  We will have to wait and see who will stick around the welterweigh divison.  I look for Speer, Sotiropplous, and Arroyo to make a little splash. 

The lightweight divison has the most TUF alums by far.  Obviously, Joe Stevenson has been the most successful and could get a title shot.  They also have another top five guy in their divison in Kenny Florian.  Joe Lauzon is set to fight Kenny and could move into seriosu contention if he pulls out a win.  I wouldn’t overlook guys like Mac Danzig, Nate Diaz, Cole Miller, Manny Gamburyan or Gray Maynard.  Din Thomas has proven himself well and Rich Clementi and Jorge Gurgel are no scrubs.

If you made me pick the most benefited from TUF I would say the lightweights, with the welterweights close behind.  It is kind of interesting to note that in 2008 at least 3 guys from TUF will get a title crack (Serra, Stevenson, and Griffin) and possibly more. 

TUF will continue to have an impact on the UFC for the good.  They hope to help out the middleweight divison, but likely good welterweights will bulk up to get on the show and the best of the next season will help the welterweight divison most.  In my opinion, they need to help out the middleweight, but in order to do so the show has to feature light heavyweights.  I look forward to see the new twists and turns of TUF 7, and to see the impact of the future TUF alumni on the UFC.  Ultimate Fighter has been Dana White’s best move and he admits is helped the UFC greatly.

Heavyweights:

None!

Light Heavyweights

• Stephan Bonnar
• Forrest Griffin
• Keith Jardine*
• Rashad Evans*
• Matt Hamill

Middleweights

• Chris Leben
• Nate Quarry
• Michael Bisping
• Ed Herman
• Kalib Starnes
• Kendall Grove
• Rory Singer
• Travis Lutter
• Charles McCarthy
• Pete Sell
• Patrick Cote

Welterweights

• Diego Sanchez*
• Josh Kosheck*
• Mike Swick*
• Josh Burkman
• Luke Cummo
• Marcus Davis
• Matt Serra
• Chris Lytle
• Tommy Speer
• George Sotiropolous
• Matt Arroyo

Lightweights

• Kenny Florian**
• Joe Stevenson*
• Jorge Gurgel*
• Melvin Guillard*
• Rich Clementi*
• Din Thomas*
• Gray Maynard
• Matt Wiman
• Joe Lauzon
• Rob Emerson
• Corey Hill
• Nate Diaz
• Manny Gamburyan
• Cole Miller
• Mac Danzig*

*Is now fighting in a different divison than he competed in under TUF

What to expect in MMA in ’08

• I expect to see new title holders in every division but one and that is the middleweight.  All though Anderson could be challenged by Dan Henderson.  My picks for the title holders: Nogueira, Not sure about lightheavyweight, Anderson Silva, St. Pierre, and B.J. Penn.
• I expect to see a few more fighters signed to UFC contracts.  Highlighting the list: Matt Lindland, Gilbert Melendez, Jake Shields, and some other big name surprise
• I expect TUF to be a disappointment with Rampage Jackson getting a lot of camera time saying his crazy off the wall things
• I expect the middleweight division to get tougher
• I expect a few UFC stars to retire (Matt Hughes and Rich Franklin)
• I expect Sean Sherk to get another title shot, but B.J. Penn to beat him badly
• I expect the light heavyweight division to get crazier with guys like Machdia, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans, and Shogun in the title mix.
• I expect Chuck Liddell to avenge his loss to Keith Jardine by summer
• I expect that Shogun is still only one fight away from a title shot, I think that my top ten in the lightheavyweight at the top ten at light heavyweight, perhaps not in that order.
• I expect Dan Henderson to try Anderson Silva like he hasn’t been tried in a while
• I expect Jon Fitch, Kenny Florian, Sean Sherk, Roger Huerta, Matt Lindland, and either Arlovski or Cro Cop to get a title shot. 
• I expect the former PRIDE guys to turn it around in the octagon
• I expect another solid fight from Wanderlai Silva, can you say rematch?
• I expect the Fedor vs. Randy fight to happen
• I expect other organizations to become more of a competition to the UFC
• I expect Dana White to say many more expletives on national television
• I expect TUF alums to suceed this year even more
• I expect Diego Sanchez to drop to lightweight
• I expect Brock Lesnar to be a middle of the road fighter
• I expect Brandon Vera to drop to lightheavyweight
• I expect Bisping to cry when he gets beat in middleweight
• I expect Tito to loose in the Apprentice

UFC Fighter Rankings

Where do fighters rank in the UFC?  I’ve seen all sorts of thoughts on rankings, so I will chime in and give my rankings, which of course are the best and most accurate.  I am using a few guidelines.

• This is strictly UFC, not including fighters not yet signed in UFC from Pride.  For example, Fedor would be on or near the top of the Heavyweight rankings, but he is yet to sign so he is not included
• This is based not on popularity or even record, but purely on who I perceive to be the best fighters
• I am putting the title holders at number one in each weight class, even though they might not be the best in that class, for example, I would not have Matt Serra as the best fighter in his class, but he is the belt holder.
• Some fighters are rising quickly and others are falling quickly (i.e. Tito and Cro Cop)

HEAVYWEIGHTS

1. Randy “The Natural” Couture

2. Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski

3. Gabriel Gonzaga

4. Cheick Kongo

5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

6. Tim Sylvia

7. Mirko “Cro Cop”

8. Brandon Vera

9. Frank Mir

10. Jeff Monson 

11. Heath Herring

12. Fabricio Werdum

13. Assuerio Silva

(Note: Fedor, Josh Barnett, and even Aleksander Emelianko may have made the list had they signed. )

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

1. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson

2. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

3. Dan Henderson

4. Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell

5. Wandelai Silva

6. Rashad Evans

7. Houston Alexander

8. Tito Ortiz

9. Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine

10. Forrest Griffin

11. Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira

12. Matt “The Hammer” Hamill

13. Micael Bisping

14. Ryoto Machida

15. Jason Lambert

16. Stephan Bonnar

17. Renato “Babalu” Sorbal

18. Wilson Gouveia

19. Marvin Eastman

(Note: I put Hamill above Bisping because I believe he beat Bisping in their fight.  Even though Bisping got the win, Hammil looked better.)

MIDDLEWEIGHT:

1. Anderson Silva

2. Rich Franklin

3. Yushim Okami

4. Terry Martin

5. Nate Marquardt

6. Dan Henderson

7. Jason MacDonald

8. Patrick Cote 

9. Kalib Starnes

10. Chris Leben

11. Martin Kampmann

12. Thales Leites

13. Ivan Salaverry

14. Nate “Rock” Quarry

15. Evan Tanner

16. Kendall Grove

17. Ed Herman

18. Travis Lutter

19. Dean Lister

20. Alessio Sakara

WELTERWEIGHT:

1. Matt Serra

2. Georges St. Pierre

3. Matt Hughes

4. Diego Sanchez

5. Karo Parisyan

6. Josh Koschek

7. Jon Fitch

8. B.J. Penn

9. Marcus Davis

10. Mike Swick

11. Thiago Alves

12. Josh Burkman

13. Luigi Fioravanti

14. Nick Diaz

15. Chris Lytle

16. Edilberto “Crocota” de Oliveira

17. Jonathan Goulet

LIGHTWEIGHT:

1.  Sean Sherk

2. B.J. Penn

3. Joe “Daddy” Stevenson

4. Roger Huerta

5. Kenny Florian

6. Hermes Franca

7. Nick Diaz

8. Joe Lauzon

9.  Din Thomas

10. Marcus Davis

11. Clay Guida

12. Spencer Fisher

13. Frank Edgar

14. Melvin Guillard

15. Drew Fickett

16. Kurt Pellegrino

17. Terry Etim

18. Tyson Griffin

19. Marcus Aurelio

20. Sam Stout

21. Tiago Tavares

22. Nate Diaz

(Note: I listed to 22 because there are so many quality fighters and the last 12-15 of these guys are not far from one another in ranking,  Some rankings have my number 19 Marcus Aurelio much higher, but come on, whose he gonna bump down?)

 Let the disputing begin.  I’d love to hear comments.  Perhaps I left someone off included someone I shouldn’t have.  Perhaps I have someone overrated or another underrated.  Let me know what you think.