The Nail in Affliction’s Coffin

As Affliction readies for their second MMA card they have released their fight card (posted below)  It looks like there are a couple of good fights on “The Day of Reckoning” card, however they made some huge mistakes. 

1. Their choice of fights for the pay per view card.  I think they made a big mistake making two cards so distinct like they did.  They have their pay per view card and their HDNet card.  While, I appreicate that it means that all the fights will be televised, they made a mistake with their line up.  The bottom line is that if Affliction wants to hang around they MUST have good fights.  I think there are 3 really good fights on this card and only 2 others worth watching.  The really good fights: Fedor vs. Arlovski, Lindland vs. Belfort and Nogueira vs. Matyushenko.  Someone please tell me why in the heck is a Chris Horodecki vs. Dan Lauzon fight making the pay per view card over Nogueira vs. Matyushenko?  For that matter why in the world would Babalu vs. Sokoudjou make it into the broadcast over Nog vs. Matyushenko?  I am not done.  Why would Josh Barnett vs. Gilbert Yvel be the choise over Nogueira vs. Matyushenko?  I know they want a headliner for HDNet, but they need buys.  Nog vs. Matyushenko has a story – it’s a re-match.  It has two top twenty light heavyweights.  Nogueira has huge name recognition.  Bad move Affliction.  There is one nail in your coffin and one reason I will no pay for those fights.  Horodecki vs. Lauzon is laughable.  They are not even top 40 lightweights in the world.  Come on. 

2. Their Competition.  The bottom line is that the economy is in bad shape and it can affect pay per view buys for MMA events.  In January I will have to budget which events to buy.  Here is the line up for January.  January 17th is UFC 93 headlined by Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson with Shogun vs. Mark Coleman.  Affliction 2: Day of Reckoning is on January 17th and is headlined by Fedor vs. Arlovski, which is very interesting.  UFC 94 follows on January 31st features B.J. Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre.  Listen if you can afford a pay per view 3 times in January…more power to you.  I can’t.  Let’s just say for the sake of it that you will order 2 events in January, which ones will you order?  GSP vs. Penn is a no brainer.  That means it is between Fedor vs, Arlovski and Franklin vs. Henderson.  The main event may favor Affliction, but the whole card and name recognition favors UFC 93.  Not to mention the fact that people can get their MMA fix the day after the Affliction card from WEC 38, which features Jamie Varner vs. Donald Cerrone and Urijah Faber vs. Jens Pulver.  Also, WEC 38 may add Carlos Condit to the card.  On top of that…add in the fact that about 28 days before Affliction’s card UFC 92 airs on Pay Per View.  Oh yeah, your co-promoter, Golden Boy has a big boxing event that same night 30 minutes away.  Ouch, that hurts. Sorry Affliction that is 2 nails in your coffin.

3.  Their marketing.  Enough said.  They cannot compete with the UFC.  The casual fan will not know about or will not remember the Affliction event in light of the upcoming super fight with Penn and St. Pierre.  Further confusion is cast with the distinction of the HDNet card vs. pay per view card.  My prediction is that Affliction’s rating stink and this is the third nail in their coffin.  As they say in baseball…3 strikes you are out!

Pay Per View Card:

Fedor Emelianenko vs.  Andrei Arlovski

Josh Barnett vs.  Gilbert Yvel

Renato Sobral vs.  Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

Matt Lindland vs.  Vitor Belfort

Chris Horodecki vs.  Dan Lauzon

HDNet Broadcast:

Vladimir Matyushenko vs.  Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Jay Hieron vs.  Jason High

Mark Hominick vs.  LC Davis

Albert Rios vs. Antonio Duarte

Breaking Down the UFC Light Heavyweight Division

The Champion: Forrest Griffin

The Top Contender: Rashad Evans

The Next Tier:

·         Wanderlei Silva

·         Quinton “Rampage” Jackson

·         Lyoto Machida

·         Thiago Silva

·         Rich Franklin

·         Dan Henderson

·         Keith Jardine

·         Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

·         Chuck Liddell

·         Luis Arthur Cane

·         Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

 

On the Rise: 

·         Luis Arthur Cane

 

Other Notables:

·         Brandon Vera

·         Mat Hamill

·         Stephan Bonnar

·         Jon Jones

·         Tim Boetsch

·         Steve Cantwell

·         Brian Stann

·         James Irvin

·         Eric Schafer

 

Scheduled Fights:

·         Steve Cantwell vs. Razak Al-Hussan at UFC Fight Night 16 on December 10

·         Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans @ UFC 92 on December 28 (For Title)

·         Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva @ UFC 92 on December 28

·         Matt Hamill vs. Reese Andy @ UFC 92 on December 28

·         Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson @ UFC 93 on January

·         Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Mark Coleman @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Andre Gusmao vs. Antonio Mendes @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Ivan Serati vs. Tomasz Drwal @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Jon Jones vs. Stephan Bonnar @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva @ UFC 94 on January 31

 

Match Ups I’d Like to See:

·         Luis Cane vs. Keith Jardine

·         Brandon Vera vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

 

Other Thoughts:

·         There are rumors of a Anderson Silva vs. Chuck Liddell match up at UFC 95

·         There are a lot of light heavyweight contenders and the match ups are being set.  The winner of Wanderlei vs. Rampage should get the next title shot, although the winner of Lyoto Machida and Thiago Silva should be considered as well. 

·         We are waiting for the debut of rumored UFC signee Glover Teixeira who has been having visa troubles in Brazil. 

·         The UFC could sign former EliteXC light heavyweight Rafael Feijao, which would be a big time contender.

·         The UFC has a clear monopoly on the light heavyweight division.  There are only a few fighters worth a  dime in this division not in the UFC (Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Vladimir Matyushenko, Ricardo Arona, Tito Ortiz, and Renato “Babalu” Sobral)

·         I looks like two solid light heavyweights have dropped to middleweight in Goran Reljic and Wilson Gouveia

·         The Ultimate Fighter 8 which featured light heavyweights is sure to place a few good fighters in the divison, but it will take time for them to climb the ladder.  Watch out for guys like Ryan Bader, Vinny Magalhes, Kryztof Soszynski, and Eliot Marshall.

·         It is somewhat possible to see Randy Couture take a few fights at light heavyweight and also to see Anderson Silva fight at 205 more often in 2009

 

Evaluating Affliction

One of the questions that I keep thinking about is whether or not Affliction in here to stay and whether or not they will compete with the UFC.  No one disagrees that UFC is the standard of MMA right now, but Affliction is making up ground quickly.  It has been a tell tale sign of a slight change that Affliction has signed so many guys lately including many of the stars from the now defunt IFL, which was bought by the parent company of the UFC, Zuffa.  Affliction has signed Champs Roy Nelson and Vladimir Matyushenko.  They have signed lightweight star Chris Horodecki and are rumored to have welterweight champ Jay Hieron.  Affliction is cleaning up the free agents and doing better in that regard than even the UFC as of late.  So, what is there to judge a promotion…

1. Fighter Talent – Fight promotions are fight promotions.  There are other factors that come into play, but primarily if a promotion does not have top level talent they will not stay relevant.

2. Show Quality –  While good fighters is essential, the promotion must put on a good show.  They must entertain fans.  This includes exciting fights, good commentators and a solid show production.  Promotions have to build shows people will come to or buy.

3.  Solid Managment –  Managment is important to a fight promotion, not just anyone can do it.  A promotion may suceed or fail based ont he business savvy of the fight promoter or president.  The PR, fighter pay, contracts, TV deals, etc. all come into play here.

With that said, let’s see how Affliction is doing…

1. Fighter Talent…

There is a lot of hype around Affliction’s fighter talent.  Here is who I can think of off hand that they have and will use on their cards

• Fedor Emelianenko
• Andrei Arlovski
• Josh Barnett
• Tim Sylvia
• Ben Rothwell
• Roy Nelson
• Pedro Rizzo
• Paul Buentello
• Aleksander Emelianenko
• Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
• Tito Ortiz
• Vladimir Matyushenko
• Renato “Babalu” Sobral
• Mike Whitehead
• Edwin DeWees
• Vernon White
• Vitor Belfort
• Matt Lindland
• Jay Hieron
• Mike Pyle
• J.J. Ambrose
• Chris Horodecki

I went to HDNet’s Rankings to see how many Affliction Fighters were ranked in the top 100 pound for pound or top in their divisons  here is the results.

(Pound for Pound Rank, Divison Rank)

Fedor Emelianenko (2, 1)

Andrei Arlovski (25, 4)

Josh Barnett (27, 5)

Tim Sylvia (55, 7)

Ben Rothwell (81, 12)

Roy Nelson (84, 13)

Pedro Rizzo (NR, 19)

Paul Buentello (NR, NR)

Aleksander Emelianenko (76, 10)

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (85, 13)

Tito Ortiz (87, 15)

Vladimir Matyushenko (66, 12)

Renato “Babalu” Sobral (92, 16)

Mike Whitehead (NR, NR)

Edwin DeWees (NR, NR)

Vernon White (NR, NR)

Vitor Belfort (NR, NR) – Unfairly I’d admit

Matt Lindland (22, 5)

Jay Hieron (59, 11)

Mike Pyle (NR, NR)

J.J. Ambrose (NR, NR)

Chris Horodecki (NR, NR)

Put this into perspective, out of the top 100 the promotions faires like this in pound for pound top 100 fighters…

• UFC -39
• Affliction – 13
• DREAM -12
• WEC – 10
• EliteXC – 10
• Strikeforce – 5
• World Victory Road – 3

The point is that Affliction’s talent is overrated. 

• They are right about the level of DREAM talent wise
• They are no where near the talent level of the UFC
• 10 of the Affliction guys that appeared on the rankings list have fought in the UFC before.  Some have been sucessful.  There are several former UFC champs (Sylvia, Barnett, Rizzo, Ortiz and Arlovski), however most of them did no better than fair in the UFC (see Matyushenko, Hieron, et. al)
• Most of the top Affliction guys are in the second half of their careers and are past their prime.  They still have fight left in them, don’t get me wrong, but not for the long haul
• What happens if two or three of those gusy get injured?  Affliction is hanging their hat on Fedor, Barnett, Arlovski and Ortiz.  They cannot keep putting everyone on every card, they will run out of match-ups.
• To their credit, they can put on good fights.  The talent isn’t bad.  Their guys can fight exciting fighter, but they have exciting fights at tough man competitions. They need to sign younger talent and more talent.

Show Quality…

• I cannot judge them solely on their sole show.  Affliction needs to improve their show quality as far as commentating, interviews and production is concerned
• Also, I thought with the exception of the last 3 fights the card wasn’t what it was billed to be
• They are nowhere near the UFC level as far as enjoyability to watch

Solid Managment:

• The UFC with Dana White and the Fertitas is still the managment standard.  I have problems with the UFC and Dana White’s managing style.  I don’t like his constant expletives, I don’t like the way he trashes other promotions, I don’t like the stubborness he exhibits with signing guys like Lindland and Barnett, and even Fedor.  However, Dana is crafty.  Atencio is no Dana White.  Watch his video below where he can’t remember Josh Barnett’s name and he is the main event for the second show. 
• Affliction does have the deep pocketed Donald Trump behind them which helps.  Trump is a business guiness, but he doesn’t neccessarily know MMA.  The money helps thought he same way it helped having Lorezon and Frank in the UFC early days when they lost tons of money.

Here is the point folks…Affliction is a solid upstart company.  They may be around for a while, but before we jump ont he bandwagon and label them peers to the UFC and competitors to the UFC let them get through a few shows first.  Let’s see how much money they lose after 3 events.  Let’s see how many fights they can do after 3 card.  They could compete, but as for now it is the UFC and then everyone else.  Zuffa is sitting pretty in the MMA world.  They are the big leagues, everything else is just the minors.  Affliction, EliteXC and DREAM are in the same boat and in a year from now at least one of them will be non-existent.

Best Non-UFC Fighters

Here are the best non-UFC fighters.  This shows where the UFC is stacked and where they lack.  There competition is mainly in Affliction at heavyweight and DREAM at lightweight.  Here are the best non-UFC guys that the UFC should look to sign if possible. 

Rank	Heavyweight	Light Heavy	Middleweight	Welterweight	Lightweight
1	Fedor Emelianenko	Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	Paulo Filho	Jake Shields	Takanori Gomi
2	Andrei Arlovski	Ricardo Arona	Matt Lindland	Carlos Condit	Shinya Aoki
3	Josh Barnett	Rafael Feijao	Robbie Lawler	Jay Hieron	JZ Calvancante
4	Tim Sylvia	Vladimir Matyushenko	Kazuo Misaki	Nick Thompson	Eddie Alvarez
5	Ben Rothwell	Babalu Sobral	Gegard Mousasi	Mach Sakurai	Mitsuhiro Ishida
6	Mirko Cro Cop	Tito Ortiz	Vitor Belfort	Mike Pyle	Joachim Hansen
7	Roy Nelson	Steve Cantwell	“Jacare” de Sousa		Tatsuya Kawajiri
8	Aleks Emelianenko	Brian Stann	Jason Miller		Josh Thomson
9	Antonio Silva		Melvin Manhoef		Gilbert Melendez
10	Alistair Overeem		Murilio Rua		Vitor Ribeiro
11			Cung Le		Jamie Varner
12			Denis Kang		Ryan Schultz
13			Joey Villasenor		KJ Noons
14			Frank Shamrock		Nick Diaz
15			Yoshihiro Akiyama		Caol Uno
16			Jorge Santiago
17			Chael Sonnen

MMA News: Matyushenko vs. Nogueira at Affliction 2

It appears that Affliction has signed yet another top fighter in former IFL light heavyweight champ Vladimir Matyushenko.  Yesterday it was reported that Affliction signed former IFL heavyweight champ Roy Nelson and that he would appear on Afflictions second card on October 11.  It also appears that Matyushenko will appear on this second card and will fight Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in a light heavyweight bout.  This should be a very good bout.  Both guys are ranked in my top 15 and most people’s top 20.  These 2 fighters in my opinion may make up the two best non-UFC light heavyweights.  I was frustrated that Nogueira was not the one talked about to get Tito Ortiz, but this is a better fight for him anyways.  The October 11th card dubbed “Day of Reckoning” will be headlined by a fight between heavyweights Josh Barnett and Andrei Arlovski.

• Andrei Arlovski vs. Josh Barnett
• Tito Ortiz vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral
• Matt Lindland vs. Vitor Belfort
• Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Vladimir Matyshenko
• Roy Nelson vs. Jay White
• Tim Sylvia vs. ?
• Paul Buentello vs. ?
• Pedro Rizzo vs. ?
• Mike Pyle vs. ?

UFC News: UFC Signs Dan and Jim Miller

This will fuel more speculation about the UFC’s purchase of the IFL.  It seems like a done deal.  The only question is where will the prized fighetrs fall.  It appears that Jim and Dan Miller will land in the UFC. 

International Fight League reigning middleweight champion Dan Miller (8-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) and IFL lightweight Jim Miller (11-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) have both signed multi-fight deals with the UFC.  The AMA Fight Club’s Mike Constantino, the manager and one of the trainers for the fighters and brothers,  today confirmed the signings with MMAjunkie.com  Both of the fighters signed four-fight exclusive contracts, though financial terms of the deals were not disclosed. Constantino declined to comment on the particulars of the negotiation process, and he had no comment on the UFC’s rumored purchase of the IFL. Constantino said no definitive dates have been determined for the Miller brothers’ UFC debuts, but he said they will be available any time the UFC needs them.  “If they told us to fight in two weeks, we’d be ready,” Constantino said. “We’ll fight as soon as possible. The guys are always in shape and in the gym all the time helping their teammates. We have about 20 guys at the gym who fight in pro organizations, so someone always has a fight coming up, and Dan and Jim are always there helping them out.”

Dan Miller is the IFl middleweight champion.  He recently took the belt from Ryan McGivern.  Jim Miller is a promising lightweight fighter, who was rumored to be on the cast of the Ultimate Fighter 8.  His lone loss was to UFC lightweight contender Frank Edgar. 

Both these guys should be a bolster to their respective divisons and we will inform MMA Blog readers of their debut as soon as we know of it.  Also, stay tuned for news of more IFL fighters.  It looks like they will fall between the UFC and WEC unless their contracts are non-transferable. 

Guys to look for:

1. Waggney Fabiano

2. Chris Horodecki

3. Jay Hieron

4. Vladimir Matyyshenko

5. Roy Nelson

6. Ryan Schultz

7. Matt Horowich

8. Ryan McGivern

 

Rumor: UFC Looking to Buy IFL

It is not a secret that the IFL has been up for sale.  The supposed asking price: $1,000,000.  The most likely buyer seems to be Zuffa, the parent company of the UFC and WEC.  The rumor has been that the UFC has been in talks with IFL.  For a long time Dana White has been critical and wary of the IFL.  Recently though many fighters have tried their hand at the UFC.  Several IFL guys were cast for TUF 7 including: Gerald Harris, Mike Dolce, and Dante Rivera.  Several others were picked to fight at the UFC Fight Night held to combat Affliction: Banned including stars Brad Blackburn, Reese Andy, and Rory Markham.  Markham and Blackburn both looked very good in wins in their octagon debuts.  The rumors have been fueled following the fight night.  Many people speculated that since Rogan and Goldberg talked openly about the IFL and IFL videos were shown that the UFC could have bought the IFL.  It seems most likely that the IFL is done. This from CagePotato:

Despite Dana White’s love of criticizing every aspect of the IFL and citing them as a cautionary tale for MMA startups, it seems fighter contracts and an extensive video library are just too attractive for him to pass up. According to a report on MMA Payout, Zuffa is very close to buying the IFL.

The deal isn’t finalized, says Sam Caplan, but this is the most credible report thus far regarding the potential purchase of the IFL. The company was said to be on the market for around $1 million, but the UFC is believed to be getting it for less than that. Sources within the IFL could only confirm for us that the talks have been under way for some time now and the UFC is the leading suitor.

 The rumor has been that the IFL fighters would be split between the UFC and WEC.  Some would become free agents.  Here are the msot attractive fighters to Zuffa. 

1. Waggney Fabiano – 145 Lbs.  (He is the IFL Fetaherweight champ and would make a good competition for Urijah Faber in the WEC.

2. Roy Nelson – HVWT.  (He is the IFL heavyweight Champ and would likely be given a shot in the UFC, but I don’t know how he’d fair against UFC fighters)

3.  Ryan Schultz – 155 lbs. (He is the IFC Lightweight Champ, and may be better suited for the WEC)

4. Chris Horodecki – 155 lbs. (I think he could hack the UFC, but 155 is stacked)

5. Jim Miller – 155 lbs. (He has been rumored to be on TUF 8 cast as a lightweight, but I don’t but that)

6. Jay Hieron – 170 lbs. (He is the IFL Welterweight Champ, he has been in the UFC, but he may have impreved since his stint there)

7. Ryan McGivern

8. Matt Horowich

9. Vladimir Matyushenko

10. Dan Miller

UFC Signing IFL Fighters

It seems the UFC has growing intrest in IFL fighters.  Recently, the UFC signed notable light heavyweight fighter from the IFL, Andre Gusmao.  Also, today it is reported that the UFC has signed Rory Markham to contract.  Also Brad Blakburn will be featured on July 19th at UFC Fight Night 14.   Also, Chris Wilson, another welterweight and former IFL figher is now with the UFC.  TUF 7 featured a few IFL fighters in Gerlad Harris, Dante Rivera and Mike Dolce.

Many of the IFL best have tried their hand at the UFC and not done great.  Jay Hieron and Vladimir Matyushenko are UFC vets.  I personally would like to see guys like Roy Nelson, Ryan McGiven, Chris Horodecki, Benji Radach, and Dan Miller in the UFC.  I don’t know how they will fair.  I have a feeling that Chris Wilson, Rory Markham and Andre Gusmao will be good indicators of how IFL fighters would do in the UFC. 

If I Could…

Okay, let me play dreamer for a minute.  If I was employed by the UFC and I could sign 3 guys from each weight class, who would I sign…?

Heavyweight:

• Fedor Emelianenko
• Josh Barnett
• Randy Couture

Also Considered: Roy Nelson, Brett Rogers, and Ben Rothwell

Light Heavyweight:

• Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
• Ricardo Arona
• Valdimir Matyushenko

(Also Considered: Babalu and Brian Stann)

Middleweight:

• Ronaldo “Jacare” de Souza
• Paulo Filho
• Robbie Lawler

Also Considered: Lindland and Jason “Mayhem” Miller

Welterweights:

• Jay Hieron
• Jake Shields
• Carlos Condit

Also Considered: Hayato Sakurai and Nick Thompson

Lightweights

• Takanori Gomi
• Gilbert Melendez
• Gesias Calvancante

Also Considered: Eddie Alvarez and Shinya Aoki and Urijah Faber if he would move up