UFC News: Shane Carwin vs. Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96

A fantastic heavyweight bout is being arranged between contenders Gabriel Gonzaga and Shane Carwin at UFC 96 in Columbus, Ohio.  The winner would have a great chance at getting the next title shot on the winner of the Lesnar vs. Mir/Nogueira fight. 

Shane Carwin is a very big guy and is very highly touted.  He comes in at 10-0.  We remember what Gabriel Gonzaga can do.  If not, ask Cro Cop.  This should be exciting. 

Hold onto your seats as it is expected that Chuck Liddell will also be on this card, as could Anderson Silva.

Breaking Down the UFC Heavyweight Divison

The Champion: Brock Lesnar

The Top Contender: The Winner of Mir vs. Nogueira

The Next Tier:

·         Frank Mir

·         Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

·         Gabriel Gonzaga

·         Cheick Kongo

·         Fabricio Werdum

·         Randy Couture

 

On the Rise: 

·         Cain Velasquez

·         Shane Carwin

·         Junior Dos Santos

 

Other Notables:

·         Heath Herring

·         Jake O’Brien

·         Antoni Hardonk

·         Mustafa Al Turk

·         Justin McCully

·         Eddie Sanchez

 

Scheduled Fights:

·         Eddie Sanchez vs. Justin McCully @ UFC Fight Night 16 on December 10

·         Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira @ UFC 92 on December 28 (For Interim Title)

·         Cheick Kongo vs. Mustafa Al Turk @ UFC 92 on December 28

·         Antoni Hardonk vs. Mark Burch @ UFC 92 on December 28

·         Dan Evensen vs. Patrick Barry @ UFC 92 on December 28

·         Jake O’Brien vs. Christian Wellish @ UFC 94 on January 31

 

Match Ups I’d Like to See:

·         Heath Herring vs. Gabriel Gonzaga or Cain Velasquez

·         Shane Carwin vs. Junior Dos Santos

·         The loser of Mir vs. Nogueira vs. Randy Couture

 

Other Thoughts:

·         The status of Fabricio Werdum is unknown.  Rumors circulated that he was released from his UFC contract following a breakdown in contract negotiations.  Then it was reported that Werdum was not leaving the UFC.  If he stays he is a serious contender.  I hope the UFC would consider this and want to keep him around

·         The status of ProElite is uncertain, and I mention this because the UFC has the potential to sign a couple of good fighters from the EliteXC heavyweight division such as Brett Rogers and Dave Herman.  It looked like Antonio Silva will head to Sengoku and Kimbo Slice, well….who cares!

·         It is time for Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez to get more exposure and fight the best.  They are real threats to Brock’s belt. 

·         A 2009 bout between Lesnar and the winner of the Mir vs. Nogueira fight is exciting

·         We are hoping Randy Couture has a few fights left in the tank, and they probably will be at Heavyweight, but don’t expect him to fight no name fighters.

·         Not sure where Mark Coleman fits into the heavyweight picture seeing as how he will be fighting Shogun at light heavyweight

UFC 91: Couture vs. Lesnar Fighter Salaries

• Brock Lesnar — $450,000 ($250,000 to show, $200,000 to win)
• Randy Couture — $250,000
• Gabriel Gonzaga — $110,000 ($55,000 to show, $55,000 to win)
• Dustin Hazelett — $88,000 ($14,000 to show, $14,000 to win, $60,000 Submission of Night Bonus)
• Kenny Florian — $80,000 ($ 40,000 to show, $40,000 to win)
• Jeremy Stephens — $76,000 ($8.000 to show, $8,000 to win, $60,000 KO of the Night Bonus)
• Jorge Gurgel — $10,000 ($60,000 Fight of the Night Bonus)
• Aaron Riley — $68,000 ($4,000 to show, $4,000 to win, $60,000 Fight of the Night Bonus)
• Demian Maia — $40,000 ($20,000 to show, $20,000 to win)
• Joe Stevenson — $35,000
• Nate Quarry — $25,000
• Mark Bocek — $18,000 ($9,000 to show, $9,000 to win)
• Matt Brown — $16,000 ($8,000 to show, $8,000 to win)
• Tamdan McCrory — $10,000
• Josh Hendricks — $8,000
• Alvin Robinson — $7,000
• Rafael dos Anjos — $4,000
• Ryan Thomas — $3,000

Poll Questions In Wake of UFC 91

Cast your vote below in some questions that arose following UFC 91. 

UFC 91: Couture vs. Lesnar Results and Thoughts

Quick Results:

Brock Lesnar defeats Randy Couture via TKO in Round 2                                                                              Kenny Florian defeats Joe Stevenson via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) Round 1
Dustin Hazelett defeats Tamden McCrory via Submission (Armbar) Round 1
Gabriel Gonzaga defeats Josh Hendricks via TKO (Strikes) Round 1
Demian Maia defeats Nate Quarry via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) Round 1
Aaron Riley defeats Jorge Gurgel via unanimous decision
Jeremy Stephens defeats Rafael dos Anjos via knockout in round three
Mark Bocek defeats Alvin Robinson via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) Round 3
Matt Brown defeats Ryan Thomas via Submission (Armbar) Round 2

• Congratulations to Brock Lesnar the new UFC Heavyweight champ.  The fight was very predictible.  I do not know what to make of it.  Is Brock Lesnar that good?  Or did Randy have a lot of ring rust?  I think a little of both.  There is no way around it, Brock Lesnar beat Randy.  I rooted for Randy, but Brock manhandled Randy.  I still think he got the title shot too early in his career, but it is over now anmd he is the champ.  He proved he is a good fighter who can hang with anyone.  He flew up the rankings I am sure with a win over Randy.  Bring on Nogueira or Mir. 
• I hope we see Randy again. It didn’t sound like he was done, so that is good news.
• Kenny Florian looked incredible.  He is better than ever.  He would beat Sean Sherk now.  I think he is the number one contender.  He may sit out a while, but he deserves a shot at B.J. Penn.  Kenny Florian made a really good Joe Stevenson look bad.  Now we see why Joe was the underdog. 
• Demain Maia is at the top of the heap at 185.  He looked very, very good against Nate Quarry.  He may be a serious threat to Anderson Silva.  Rumor has it he is on the short list for TUF 9 coaches alongslide Bisping.  Maia vs. Bisping would be interesting.  Demain Maia is the real deal.
• Gabriel Gonzaga looked to be back to true self with a good KO
• Dustin Hazelett climbed the ladder at 170.  He has great ground game.  Did he break McCrory’s arm????  Hazelett had some of the best submissions in MMA.  The beard was cool too.  Don’t write of McCrory either.  He lookeed pretty good.
• Jorge Gurgel vs.  Aaron Riley was an all out war.  I predicted it to be fight of the night and I was right. 
• Matt Brown has jiu jitsu!!!  He may be the steal from the TUF 7 season.  He has looked really good since TUF, and very well could be undefeated since his showing, but lost a close decision to Dong Hyun Kim
• Jeremy Stephens’ KO of Rafael dos Anjos was sick.  The snot flying out was crazy.  Good camera work there.  By the way I called that to be KO of the Night as well.
• I was glad to see so many fights on the pay per view last night.

Official Fight of the Night: Aaron Riley vs. Jorge Gurgel

Official Submission of the Night: Dustin Hazelett

Official KO of the Night: Jeremy Stephens

UFC 91 Preview and Predictions

Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar

Perhaps this is not the biggest fight in UFC history, but it is a big one that is sure to attract a record crowd.  The hype surrounding this card speaks volumes about this particular fight seeing as how the rest of the card is mediocre at best.  This is also a hard fight to pick.  Here is what we know.  Brock Lesnar has looked impressive in his two UFC fights although he lost his debut against Frank Mir (or as he says it “Murr”).  Quite honestly, if Steve Mazagatti hadn’t pulled Lesnar off and stood them up for a hit to the back of the head the fight may have ended with Lesnar being victorious.  Against Heath Herring Lesnar showed incredible ability to control another fighter and he showed that he hits stinkin’ hard.  There are a lot of unknowns about Brock Lesnar.  However, Randy Couture is not an unknown at all.  We know what he will bring to the cage.  He comes in as an underdog despite his experience.  Let me break down this fight. I broke down different skills sets and picked who had tha advantage in each realm that may be a factor in this fight.  Myabe it will help in picking a winner.

Age: Brock Lesnar

Randy is 45.  Brock Lesnar is 31.  Age could be a factor.  It hasn’t been for Randy yet, but it is bound to be eventually.  Everyone thought it was an issue against Tim Sylvia and against Gabriel Gonzaga and it wasn’t, a little over a year later, we expect it could be a factor.  I do not believe it will be the sole factor or even the deciding factor, but it will be a factor. Unfortunately, if Couture loses everyone will blame it on Randy’s age and not Lesnar’s skill.  I believe everyone would agree that Lesnar wins the age battle.

Experience: Randy Couture

There is no question that Randy’s experience is a huge factor.  Lesnar is 2-1 in his MMA career.  Granted he has fought elite fighters in Mir and Herring, he doesn’t nearly have the résumé that Couture has.  Couture has an impressive 16-8 record.  Randy has been in the ring against guys like Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Tim Sylvia, Gabriel Gonzaga, Vitor Belfort, Josh Barnett, Ricco Rodriguez, Maurice Smith, Pedro Rizzo, Jeremy Horn, and Kevin Randleman.  Couture has fought 5 round fights.  He has headlines big events.  He has been in every imaginable situation in a fight.  That is a huge advantage.  The limelight will not be a decided advantage for Randy because Lesnar has been there.  He experienced that in WWE and even in his college wrestling days.  When it comes down to instincts in the ring though Randy has the advantage.  The one who loses this fight could very well be the one who makes the first mistake.  That bodes very well for Couture.

Strength: Brock Lesnar

Is there any real question here?  Look at Lesnar.  He dwarfs everyone.  He is strong as an ox.  By the way, never question whether Lesnar’s build and strength were gained by natural means because he does not like being accused of steroids.  Strength could be an issue.  Lesnar’s strength could give Lesnar the ability to hold Couture down and avoid reversals.  It could help in the clinch, where Randy is very good.  It could help to avoid submissions and to get off his back.  In this match-ups strength will be an issue.  We give the strength advantage to Lesnar.

Athleticism: Brock Lesnar

This is a tough one to call.  I just give the athletic advantage to Lesnar because he is younger and he is a physical specimen.  He is a elite wrestler.  He played some pro football.  He is doing well in MMA.  He has shown great athletic prowess.  I think Lesnar may be the most athletic heavyweight.  He is quick and moved well for a guy nearing 300 lbs. I know WWE is fake and say what you want about pro wrasslin’, but it does take great athleticism do fair well in the WWE. I give the athleticism advantage to Lesnar, but not by a lot.

Wrestling: Brock Lesnar

I know that Randy Couture is a top tier wrestler.  I know of his background at Oklahoma State.  I know that he was an Olympic alternate like 3 times.  There is no one with the wrestling pedigree of Brock Lesnar.   He is a national champ out of Minnesota.  He could have done whatever he wanted wrestling wise.  Where does this come into play?  On the ground.  It will be very hard to keep Brock on his back.  However, he is not in there against some tomato can wrestler.  Randy Couture is a good, very good wrestler.  I give the advantage to Brock here though mainly because Randy is further removed from his wrestling career than Brock Lesnar.  The skill set difference may not be enough to make much difference and I highly doubt this fight will unfold like the Herring fight did. 

Grappling: Randy Couture

Brock Lesnar showed a lot of skill against Herring, but he showed very little grappling or jiu jitsu skills.  He should have submitted him numerous times following the many times he mounted the Texas Crazy Horse or the times he took his back.  If he gives Randy his back he will be choked out.  That may be a good place for Randy to look to win and it may be an area that Brock is vulnerable.  With that said the brute strength of Lesnar makes up for some of his lack of grappling skill and also, Lesnar is showing improvement constantly.  Certainly he has worked on grappling.  The question is how much did he improve since Herring?

Clinch: Randy Couture

Randy is a master at the clinch and dirty boxing.  He is not afraid to clinch with bigger stronger guys.  Just ask Gonzaga and Sylvia.  The clinch could be a good place to be for Randy.  He has a decided clinch advantage.

Size: Brock Lesnar

Brock Lesnar has to cut weight to make 265 lbs.  Randy Couture will come in barely over 205 lbs.  Lesnar wears those XXXXL MMA gloves.  He will be a tough dude to wrap up and to hold onto.  Enough said. 

Striking Technique: Randy Couture

Randy never fails to impress.  He has more technique because he has been at it longer.  He may utilize his technique and boxing skills to keep Lesnar away and he may want to test Brock’s chin.  Randy hit Sylvia so hard in round 1 of their fight that Tim says he didn’t come to until round 5. 

Striking Power: Brock Lesnar

Ask Heath Herring.  Brock can hit hard.  He doesn’t seem to have the technique that Randy does, but I have a feeling that Brock hits harder.  He packs a lot of weight behind a punch.  If Brock hits Randy like he did Herring it could be a bad night for Captain America.

Training: Randy Couture

I do not doubt Lesnar’s work ethic or how good his training will be.  The bottom line is that Xtreme Couture is becoming one of the elite training facilities in the world.  Randy will as always have a superior game plan and will have trained and prepared for everything in this fight.

Fans/Popularity: Randy Couture

He is Captain America.  He is the Natural.  Randy Couture is beloved by fans.  I do not know if his recent stint outside the octagon will hurt him, but I think it will help him.  I imagine that when Randy walks out Saturday night that the cheers will be deafening.  The fans will be behind Randy.  Brock is not unpopular, it is just he is fighting the most popular or at least one of the most popular mixed martial artists.  His popularity will translate into money and pay per view buys.  I think Randy will have the crowd seeing as how he is fighting out of his hometown of Las Vegas.  This is a factor in this fight.  Brock will receive some love too, but not the love of Captain America.

Cardio:  Randy Couture

I almost labeled this a tossup.  It really could be, but I gave it to Randy for a few reasons.  First, Randy is and always has been known as a cardio machine.  Second, he has gone five round before.  After round 3 it is a new place for Brock.  I would imagine that Brock’s cardio is very good and that he is prepared to go 5, but he is more likely to gas than Randy and Randy could keep a fast paced or in your face style that could wear down Lesnar.  I do not think it is a huge advantage, but it could be a slight advantage.

The only other question I would have is will Randy show some ring rust?  I doubt it.  I am so tempted to pick Lesnar to win this fight.  However, I have learned my lesson about betting against Randy Couture.  Therefore I pick Randy Couture to win by submission in round 3. 

Kenny Florian vs. Joe Stevenson

A great fight in the lightweight divison which should determine the number 1 contender.  If Florian wins he has to get a title shot.  If Florian can avoid the Stevenson guillotine choke he will win this fight.  I am excited about this one.  However, I pick Florian by decision.

Demian Maia vs. Nate Quarry

This is a great fight.  Quarry is a good striker and Maia is a great grappler and jiu jitsu practioner.  The winner of this fight moved far up the ladder at 185 lbs.  I think if it stays standing Quarry wins.  If it goes to the ground Maia wins.  With that said, I think it will go to the ground.  Maia will then make quick work of Quarry.  If I am wrong Quarry will have won by KO or TKO.  Nevertheless, I pick Maia by submission in round 1.

Amir Sadollah vs. Nick Catone

I know nothing about Catone, but do you really think they will give the Ultimate Fighter winner a guy they thought would beat Amir?  Amir by submission in round 2.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Josh Hendricks

Quick Picks:

Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamdan McCrory

Jorge Gurgel vs. Aaron Riley

Jeremy Stephens vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Mark Bocek vs. Alvin Robinson

Matt Brown vs. Ryan Thomas

Fight of the Night Pick: Gurgel vs. Riley

Submission of the Night Pick: Demian Maian or Dustin Hazelett

KO of the Night Pick: Jeremy Stephens

Upset to Wtach: Brock Lesnar over Randy Couture and Nate Quarry over Demian Maia

This Week (November 9-15) In MMA

• UFC 91: Couture vs. Lesnar This is being billed as “the biggest fight in UFC history”.  From a money standpoint that may be true.  From a talent standpoint I don’t think so.  The card is solid, but not as good as some of the upcoming UFC cards.  MMAblog will cover more of this event as the week goes on.  get ready to order the pay per view event Saturday…The fight card looks like this:

Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar

Kenny Florian vs. Joe Stevenson

Nate Quarry vs. Demian Maia

Amir Sadollah vs. Nick Catone

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Josh Hendricks

Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamadan McCrory

Jorge Gurgel vs. Aaron Riley

Jeremy Stephens vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Mark Bocek vs. Alvin Robinson

Matt Brown vs. Ryan Thomas

• The Ultimate Fighter 8 Episode 9 will air Wednesday, November 12th.  The show is expected to feature a light heavyweight bout between Team Mir number 1 pick and one of the favorites to win the show, Krzysztof Soszynski who will be taking on Kyle Kingsbury.
• Cagefest Xtreme: Evolution will take place Saturday, November 15th.  The Ultimate Fighter 6 runner- up Tommy Speer will be headlining the card against Beau Baker.  Also, on the card is Antwain Britt, who many may remember for being a cast member of the Ultimate Fighter 8.  Britt won his first bout to make it into the house, but he sustained a hand injury which forced him out of the show.  Apparently the UFC declined to pick him up.  A win here could get Britt into the UFC.  Britt will take on CT Turner. Also, UFC veteran Chad Reiner will be fighting against Kyle Baker.
• Destiny MMA will have a show in Hawaii on November 15th which will be headlined by UFC veteran and our favorite afraid to engage fighter, Kalib Starnes who will be taking on the talented and dangerous Hawaiian fighter Kala Kolohe Hose.  In addition, Po’ai Suganuma will be in action as wil Kaelo Kwan.
• Also do not forget the Countdown to UFC 91, which will first air on SPIKE on Monday Night (Tonight)!

Mid Year MMA Awards

Best Knockout

Honorable Mention: Luis Arthur Cane KO Jason Lambert, Shane Carwin KO Christian Wellish, Murilio Rua TKO Tony Bonello, Matt Wiman KO Thiago Tavares

5. Anthony Johnson KO Tommy Speer

4. Wilson Gouveia KO Jason Lambert

3. Brian Stann KO Doug Marshall

2. James Irvin KO Houston Alexander

1. Wanderlei Silva KO Keith Jardine

Best Submission

Honorable Mention: Antonio Nogueira submits Tim Sylvia by Guillotine, Yoshiyuki Yoshida submits Jon Koppenhaver by Anaconda choke, Nate Diaz submits Kurt Pellegrino, Cole Miller Submits Jorge Gurgel by Triangle Choke

5. Demian Mia Submits Ed Herman by Triangle Choke

4. Frank Mir Submits Brock Lesnar by Kneebar

3. Rousimar Palhares Submits Ivan Salaverry by Armbar

2. Dustin Hazelett Submits Josh Burkman by Armbar

1. Shinya Aoki Submits Katsuhiko Nagata by Aokiplata

Best Fight

Honorable Mention: Shinya Aoki vs. Gesias Calvancante, Cung Le vs. Frank Shamrock

5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia

4. Urijah Faber vs. Jens Pulver

3. Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith

2. Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin

1. Miguel Torres vs. Yoshiro Maeda

Best Fight Card

5. WEC 34: Faber vs. Pulver

4. UFC 80: Rapid Fire

3. UFC 81: Breaking Point

2. DREAM 4

1. UFC 84: Ill Will

Upset of The Year:

Honorable Mention: Jason Day over Alan Belcher,

5. Thiago Alves over Karo Parisyan

4. Kevin Burns over Roan Carneiro

3. Fabricio Werdum over Gabriel Gonzaga

2. Josh Thomson over Gilbert Melendez

1. Forrest Griffin over Quinton Jackson

Fighter Of The Year:

Honorable Mention: Anderson Silva, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Michael Bisping, Georges St. Pierre, Diego Sanchez

5. Miguel Torres

4. Forrest Griffin

3. Thiago Alves

2. Shinya Aoki

1. B.J. Penn (2 Impressive wins over Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson)

Best UFC Newcomer:

Honorable Mention: Shane Carwin, Brock Lesnar

5. Rousimar Palhares

4. Dong Hyun Kim

3. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

2. Goran Reljic

1. Cain Velasquez

Worst Calls By A Ref. or Judges

5. Forrest Griffin over Quinton Jackson –  Not just that Forrest got the win, but that it was unanimous.  Many, including me scored the fight either a draw or to Jackson

4. Brandon Vera vs. Fabricio Werdum- Dan Miragliotta stopped the fight in round 1 when Werdum was mounted on Vera throwing down punches.  There was just 10 seconds remaining and Vera seemed to be defending himself well. 

3. Nate Marquardt vs. Thales Leites — Leites got the win, but lost the fight.  He lost the fight due to two points taken away from Marquardt.  One point was justified, but the other was due to elbow to the back of the ehad that wasn’t to the back of the head.  I will confess, that another point could have fairly been deducted for an illegal slam, but I hated to see Marquardt get a loss on his record that I feel he won

2. Phantom split decisions — How was Evan Tanner vs. Kendall Grove a split deicsion?  How was Heath Herring vs Cheick Kongo a split decision?  The right person got the decision, but how was it split?

1. Kimbo Slice vs. James Thompson – Dan Miragliotta stopped the fight in the 3rd round while Thompson was still standing and failed to stop it when Thompson was mounted on Kimbo raining down elbows

UFC 86 Discussion

Hey this is MMAblog’s official UFC 86 discussion.  Please post comments and predictions.  Let me give my picks and you can debate me or rub it in my face if I am wrong…

My Quick Picks:

• Jackson
• Almeida
• Koscheck
• Griffin
• Stevenson
• Gonzaga
• Guillard
• Miller
• Hill

Also, you can sign up and make predictions at www.mmapredictions.com or fantasy picks at www.ufc.com

UFC 86 Weigh In Video

Watch the official UFC 86 weigh ins here. Beware of Quinton “Rampage” Jackson’s scratch n’ sniff underwear.

Vodpod videos no longer available.

more about “UFC 86 Weigh In Video“, posted with vodpod

 

My UFC 86 Predictions

Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin 

This match has been a long time in the waiting.  Jackson is clearly the favorite going into this fight.  I believe that Jackson is a better all around fighter than Forrest is, however on any given night a guy like Forrest can beat a better guy (as he did against Shogun).  I think the countdown to UFC 86 got it right when the compared Forrest to Rocky Balboa, a guy who has done very well and has exceeded his skill set.  Forrest is tough as nails and he trains harder than anyone in the sport.  Rampage has knockout power and he is not afraid to slam someone.  There are several story lines going into this fight.  Many people will talk about the rivalry being developed through season 7 of the Ultimate Fighter.  Many will talk about how Forrest beat Shogun and Shogun beat Rampage.  Many will talk about Wanderlei Silva helping Forrest prepare for Rampage since Wanderlei has two wins over Jackson.  There wil be a ton of people rooting for Forrest in this fight.  When all is said and done though I do not think that Forrest is as good of a fighter as Ramapge.  He could win, I am not counting him out, but the odds on favorite has to be Rampage and to pick against him in this fight as far as I am concerned would be silly.  I do not know how this fight will go.  It could end quickly with a KO or it could go the distance.  Nevertheless I am picking Quinton “Rampage” Jackson to win via TKO in round 3. 

Ricardo Almeida vs. Patrick Cote

Patrick Cote is a solid fighter who has impressed as of late.  He looks renewed and he has shown some skills since The Ultimate Fighter 4.  This fight as being billed as the winner gets a title shot.  Of course I believe they need to move in line behind Yushin Okami, but I would agree that the winner here could be justified as a top 5 middleweight.  There is no secret to these fighter’s strengths.  Cote excells standing up and can knock anyone out with one punch.  Ricardo Almeida is a ground wiz.  He is one of the best ji jitsu guys in MMA.  He has beaten great ground fighters like Nate Marquardt.  My question for Almeida is going to be in regards to how he will continue to do since coming out of retirement.  Alemida just quit MMA at his prime.  He was doing great and then quit.  He then returned at UFC 81 with a win over Rob Yundt.  Almeida moved from the undecard to co-main event after one fight.  I have no problem with that as I feel Almeida is great.  Since losing to Travis Lutter at the TUF 4 Finale, Patrick Cote has reeled off impressive wins over Scott Smith, Jason Day, Kendall Grove, and Drew McFedries.  That isn’t too bad, and it shows why Cote is in title contention.  Although separated by several yeats Almeida comes into this fight with a 7 fight win streak.  Including wins over Nate Marquardt, Ryo Chonan, and Kazuo Misaki.  Misaki and Marquardt are considered by many to be top ten mdidleweights and Chonan isn’t too shabby either.  This is a classic ground fighter versus stand up fighter fight.  If Almeida gets this to the ground Cote may be in trouble.  I have a feeling Almeida has worked hard on take downs and I am sure Cote has worked hard on take down defense.  I think this fight will not last past round 1.  It will either end with a Cote KO or Almeida submission.  I think Almeida’a experience will pay off and he will be able to take Cote down and submit him.  I pick Ricardo Almeida by submission in round 1. 

Joe Stevenson vs. Gleison Tibau

Following Joe Stevenson’s fight with B.J. Penn many people forgot about Joe Stevenson as a contender in the lightweight divison.  Let’s not forget that Stevenson is a top notch fighter.  He is a tough dude, who didn’t do too badly against B.J. Penn. Tibau is 3-2 in the UFC with his losses coming to Nick Diaz and Tyson Griffin.  Tibau is a good fighter, but I do not know if he is on Joe “Daddy” level.  Joe has some quality wins in the UFC.  In the end I think Joe Stevenson’s wrestling will prove too much and he will beat Tibau via unanimous decision. 

Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle

Koscheck is 8-2 in the UFC.  Like Joe Stevenson, he has been forgotten since his loss to Georges St. Pierre.  Don’t forget folks that Josh Koscheck (love him or hate him) is a contender in the UFC middleweight divison and is clearly a top 5 guy in the divison.  He has wins over good fighters in Diego Sanchez and Dustin Hazelett.  Chris Lytle is no push over.  Lytle has been around the UFC for a while, debuting at UFC 28. I believe Lytle is 4-8 in the UFC.  He has lost to some good fighters in Matt Serra, Matt Hughes, Karo Parisyan, Thiago Alves, Robbie Lawler, Joe Riggs, and Nick Diaz.  He has fought some top notch fighters.  He just hasn’t beaten the top tier guys.  I though Lytle was done prior to his highlight reel KO of Kyle Bradley.  Is Lytle going to be a sacrificial lamb to get Koscheck back into contention talk?  I believe so.  Lytle could stun everyone and KO Koscheck, but Koscheck is a good fighter who is improving.  He needs a win here.  A win here will set him up for a fight against another top contender.  I look for Koscheck to shoot, get the takedown, take the mount and pound out Lytle.  I pick Josh Koscheck by TKO in round 2. 

Marcus Aurelio vs. Tyson Griffin

Tyson Griffin is always a part of great fights.  This could be a great match, which quite honestly I have a hard time picking.  Aurelio has a 16-5 record in MMA, however 4 of those 5 losses are split decision losses.  He lost a controversial split decision to Clay Guida in his UFC debut and a split decision loss to Takanori Gomi.  Aurelio has big wins over top tier fighters including a win over Takanori Gomi.  Aurelio trains out of the American Top team with guys like Thiago Alves.  Aurelio is a top tier lightweight.  The winner of this fight is no doubt in serious contention (behind Huerta and Florian).  This has the makings of a great fight, but I look for it to go the distance.  Quite honestly this is a toss up in my mind.  Both Griffin and Aurelio have top training.  Both can hold their own striking and on the ground.  I do not know who has the advantages anywhere.  Interestingly, both have recently fought a common opponent in Clay Guida.  Tyson Griffin won a split decision with Guida and Aurelio lost a split decision to Guida.  In other words, that doesn’t tell us much.  Both can hang with the big dogs.  I will pick Tyson Griffin by split decision.  (That sure would stink for Aurelio to have 5 of his 6 losses by split decision, perhaps he knows the danger of leaving it for the judges). 

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Justin McCully

Gonzaga has gone from main event to under card quickly.  He las lost to Couture and Werdum and is now trying to climb back into contention.  This fight may make it onto the pay per view card.  This fight will tell us a lot about Gonzaga.  He gained a lot of attention for his incredible knock out of Mirko Cro Cop.  Since then he has lost to Couture and Werdum and hasn’t looked great.  This fight will tell us if Gonzaga is a fluke.  McCully is a good fighter, so it will be interesting.  I still think Gonzaga is a top level fighter and I think that he will pull out a win here.  I pick Gonzaga by TKO in round 1. 

Jorge Gurgel vs. Cole Miller

Gurgel is a great trainer and he is 3-2 in the UFC, but he hasn’t beaten anyone notable yet.  Cole Miller is 2-1 in the UFC and looked good on the Ultimate Fighter season 5.  I think that this fight is evenly matched and I think that in the end Cole Miller will get the win by unanimous decision.

Melvin Guillard vs. Dennis Siver

Melvin Guillard is super talented. This may be his last chance in the UFC.  If he loses he is done.  He is already on record saying he’d like to move over to the WEC.  He would do well there.  I don’t think he is done yet though.  I think Guillard will win this one by TKO in round 3. 

Justin Bucholz vs. Corey Hill  

Rumor has is that Corey Hill is improving greatly.  He looked great in his last fight against Joe veres, but Buchholz is  astep up in talent.  I still think Hill will prevail.  Hill’s height will prove too much and he will utilize his reach and the muay thai clinch.  Hill is a 6;4” lightweight! I pick Corey Hill by a barage of knees and TKO in round 1. 

Upset Watch*: Marcus Aurelio over Tyson Griffin; Chris Lytle over Josh Koscheck

Fight of the Night Prediction: Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio

Knockout of the Night Prediction: Quinton Jackson

Submission of the Night Prediction: Ricardo Almeida

* Upset watch denotes my picks which I feel could turn into upsets, in other words, these are my picks I would least be shocked if they were wrong.

UFC News: Gonzaga vs. McCully at UFC 86

It seems that Gabriel Gonzaga will return to action against Justin McCully.  McCully was initially rumored to be fighting Frank Mir at UFC 86. but that changed when Mir was tapped to coach TUF 8.  I don’t know if this card will make the main card, but it is likely since the card is fairly weak.  MMAJunkie reports:

that the heavyweights recently accepted the bout and that it should be finalized shortly. The fight was first reported by our official radio partner, TAGG Radio.

Gonzaga is coming off of back to back losses, we will see if he can turn things around and get back into contention for the belt.  He is super talented as Mirko Cro Cop can tell you.

Tournaments in the UFC

What if UFC had a 16 man tournament.  In other words a little bigegr version of what DREAM is doing with lightweights and middleweights.  A tournament would doa  lot of good things.  It would give an underdog the chance to win and fight the top dog.  You would have to have some type of ranking to do it and seed the guys like with the NCAA basketball tournament.  It would ease match making.  It would give exciting fights and intriguing possibilites.  Can you imagine all the possible scenarios of what could happen and who could fight one another?  I bet guys would fight passionatley.  There would be upsets.  So…I played around and came up with this…I took my 16 top guys in each class and made a bracket.  The fight one winner will fight the fight 2 winner and so on…

Lightweight:

Round One Match ups:

B.J. Penn vs. Rich Clementi

Clay Guida vs. Gray Maynard

Marcus Aurelio vs. Frank Edgar

Kenny Florian vs. Manny Gamburyan

Sean Sherk vs. Spencer Fisher

Nate Diaz vs. Joe Stevenson

Joe Lauzon vs. Tyson Griffin

Roger Huerta vs. Mac Danzig

Welterweight:

Georges St. Pierre vs. Chris Lytle

Thiago Alves vs. Mike Swick

Karo Parisyan vs. Matt Serra

Josh Koscheck vs. Ryo Chonan

Jon Fitch vs. Roan Carneiro

Diego Sanchez vs. Luigi Fiorvanti

Marcus Davis vs. Akihiro Gono

Matt Hughes vs. Chris Wilson

Middleweight:

Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites

Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Quarry

Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida

Yushin Okami vs. Demian Maia

Rich Franklin vs. Evan Tanner

Nate Marquardt vs. Jason MacDonald

Chris Leben vs. Michael Bisping

Dan Henderson vs. Jorge Rivera

Light Heavyweight:

Quinton Jackson vs. Goran Reljic

Mauricio Shogun Rua vs. Matt Hammil

Wanderlei Silva vs. Sokoudjou

Chuck Liddell vs. Houston Alexander

Keith Jardine vs. Jame Irvin

Forrest Griffin vs. Wilson Gouveia

Thiago Silva vs. Rashad Evans

Lyoto Machida vs. Stephan Bonnar

Heavyweight:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Dan Evenson

Cheick Kongo vs. Eddie Sanchez

Heath Herring vs. Cain Velasquez

Frank Mir vs. Christian Wellish

Fabricio Werdum vs. Antoni Hardonk

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin

Brock Lesnar vs. Justin McCully

Brandon Vera vs. Neil Wain

 

This all could make some interesting match-ups.  What you would do would be take all five divisons and make 5 fight cards with 8 fights each.  You could split them up or have a “lightweight card”.  5 cards would finish round one.  Then you could have two 10 fight card and that would finish round two.  Then you could have another card that would do the semi-final match ups and another card for the championships.  Try making an un-televised undercard out of any of these fights.  That would be awesome.  Of course you could put more thought into match ups and potential second and third round “dream match up” in where you placed fighters, but it is a great idea.  The one flaw is that if the UFC had one card a month this tournament would take 9 months to finish and that would keep a lot of fighters from fighting in that time.  I guess you could break it up and have non-tournament fights mixed in there too.  Just food for thought…

UFC’s Best Divison

I went to HDnet’s fighter rankings and based this on which UFC weight divisons had the most top 20 fighters.  I know there are other ways to judge the best, but this is interesting…

1. Light Heavyweights –  They are stacked in the UFC.  This is where the light heavyweight competition lies.  They have the top 11 (Jackson, Henderson, Griffin, Liddell, Jardine, Machida, Wanderlei, Evans, Thiago Silva, and Sokodjou) guys in the world and 20 of the top 25 guys.  This is a great divison, full of star power.

2. Welterweights – They have 10 of the top 20 (St. Pierre, Fitch, Hughes, Serra, Koscheck, Sanchez, Alves, Parisyan, Davis and Gono), but 8 of the world’s top ten.  They have a near top ten monopoly only missing out on Shields and Condit.  I feel that there are other UFC guys to mention in top 20 talk (Chris Wilson and Chris Lytle), but the divison is strong and has the top tier welterweights in the world.

3. Lightweights – In most rankings the UFC gets cheated in the lightweight divison.  The system I used ranked 8 of their guys as top 20 in the world (Penn, Sherk, Huerta, Stevenson, Florian, Guida, Tyson Griffin, and Gray Maynard).  I know some of those other guys are good, but they are overrated.  Gomi can’t beat UFC guys.  Nick Diaz, B.J. Penn and Marcus Aurelo all beat him.  Aoki, Melendez, Calvancanti and bunch are unproven in my opinion against top guys.  Plus I feel some guys unfairly got left out of rankings.  Where is Marcu Aurelio?  FranK Edgar?  or Joe Lauzon?  or even Nate Diaz?  You mean to tell me Edgar is not a top 20?  This divison is stacked and has more contenders than any UFC divison.  DREAM does have some great lightweights.  I’d love to see a fight card of UFC’s top lightweights against DREAM’s top lightweights.  I think UFC would win easily.

4. Middleweights – They have 7 of the top 20 fighters in the world at this divison (Anderson Silva, Rich Franklin, Dan Hemderson, Marquardt, Okami, Bisping and Leites.  I put this above heavyweights first of all because I believe there are some guys that could be in the top 20 mix (Quarry, MacDonald, Leben, Cote, Kampmann and Almeida). It still is weak, not because it isn’t deep, but because they can’t find anyone to compete with Anderson Silva.  Anderson Silva is the second reason I put this divison above Heavyweights…enough said.

5. Heavyweights –  They also have 7 of the top 20 fighters in the world at Heavyweight  (Nogueira, Werdum, Gonzaga, Kongo, Vera, Mir and Herring).  Only 3 of those guys are top ten in the world.  All this assumed Arlovski signs with Affiction.  If that happens Affliction will have 6 of the top ten (Fedor, Sylvia, Barnett, Rothwell, Arlovski and Aleksander Emelianenko) plus Pedro Rizzo.  This is a weak divison for the UFC, but they do have some good prospects in Carwin, Lesnar and Velasquez.  This divison was once strong, but since has lost Couture, Cro Cop, Sylvia, Arlovski, and O’Brien.

The Stars of the UFC

There is a recent shift in stars of the UFC.  Those stars are the great investments, the money makers. The stars are not necessarily your best fighters, but they are well liked by the fans and they draw a crowd.  The stars are the people that the UFC will market and set up to be successful.  The stars get the most money and the best fights.  The stars have a louder voice with the UFC brass.  Some of those stars have been discontent like Randy Couture, Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski and Tito Ortiz.  Those guys leaving hurts the UFC.  The guys the UFC recognizes as their stars are the ones they need to cater to more.  The stars are prized in all MMA organizations.  The WEC has Filho, Faber, Condit, and Stann.  PRIDE had Fedor, Cro Cop, Barnett, Wanderlai, Dan Henderson, Gomi, Arona, Shogun and the Nogueira brothers.  EliteXC has Lawler, Kimbo, Frank Shamrock, and Carano.  Strikeforce has Gilbert Melendez and Cung Le.  The stars are not always the champs, but they may be.  In the UFC there is a shift.  The old guard is moving on.  They are still there, and still draw a crowd and are still good PPV fights, but in a few years will be gone.  The old guard consisted of Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture, Ken Shamrock, Tito Ortiz and Matt Hughes.  There is a star level, then there is a second tier level of guys you want to hold onto at all costs, who have a following, and then there is the emerging star tier. Then you have your great fighters who perform in the octagon are respected, but may not have the charisma to be the face of the organization.  These guys can win and hold belts, but they won’t be the Chuck Liddell’s.  This system explains why the UFC gives a title shot and coaches spot to Forrest Griffin, who i no way has earned the title of number 1 contender.  He is good, but not that good.  He may eventually earn that, but this is premature.  Why did he get it?  Because he is popular.  He will sell PPVs and people will watch TUF because of him.  Personality will carry a guy a long way, just look at the Houston Alexander bandwagon. A lack of personality will hurt a guy, just ask Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt, who if they had the charisma would be stars because they have the ability.  These guys can move up and down these different levels, but some guys have already been crowed as stars and can do little to harm that.  Your stars are the guys you hold on to at all costs.  Your second tier you want to keep because they are your contenders and can become stars.  Your third tier you be careful with because they can become stars if you play your cards right.  Your fourth tier are some of the best fighters, they put on good fights, they win fight night bonuses and they should be signed and kep in the organization if you can.  The effect of a star leaving the UFC is much greater than when someone else does.  The UFC is hurt by loosing their four biggest heavyweight stars Couture, Cro Cop, Arlovski and Sylvia.  The UFC is not so much hurt by loosing Jake O’Brien.  It would be nice to keep O’Brien, but if you can’t you move on.  Also, you sign MMA free agents based on this tier.  I and many others consider Fedor for example a star level guy, an instant smash hit and a great investment.  You pay him well, but he will make you money.  Dana White apparently considered him second tier, and didn’t sign him.  My opinion you give the Fedors and the Couture and the Liddells whatever they want.  My system looks like this:

UFC’s Stars:

• Anderson Silva
• Georges St. Pierre
• B.J. Penn
• Rich Franklin
• Chuck Liddell
• Quinton “Rampage” Jackson
• Forrest Griffin
• Tito Ortiz
• Matt Hughes
• Wanderlai Silva

Second Level: UFC’s Near Stars:

• Brandon Vera
• Matt Serra
• Jon Fitch
• Diego Sanchez
• Dan Henderson
• Josh Koscheck
• Sean Sherk
• Kenny Florian
• Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
• Rashad Evans
• Michael Bisping
• Joe Stevenson
• Gabriel Gonzaga
• Chris Leben
• Karo Parisyan
• Clay Guida

Third Level: The UFC’s Emerging Stars:

• Brock Lesnar
• Roger Huerta
• Mac Danzig
• Joe Lauzon
• Cain Velasquez

Fourth Level: UFC’s Stud Fighters, but Not Stars:

• Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
• Fabricio Werdum
• Keith Jardine
• Frank Mir
• Thiago Silva
• Heath Herring
• Lyoto Machida
• Marcus Aurelio
• Yushin Okami
• Marcus Davis
• Patrick Cote
• Evan Tanner
• Stephan Bonnar
• Martin Kampmann
• Marvin Eastman
• Ricardo Almeida
• Mike Swick
• Thiago Tavares
• Nate Quarry
• Wilson Gouveia
• Nate Marquardt
• Kauhiro Nakamura
• Jason MacDonald
• Demian Maia
• Thiago Alves
• Thales Leites
• Frank Edgar
• Matt Hammil
• Nate Diaz
• Akihiro Gono
• Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
• Gray Maynard
• Hermes Franca
• Cheick Kongo
• Din Thomas
• Spencer Fisher
• Tyson Griffin

Note: The reality show really helped some of these fighters draw a fan base, because people saw them on TUF they root for them to suceed in their careers