My UFC 78 Precitions

Tamdan McCrory vs. Akihiro Gono

Gono has had two or three decent wins, but nothing spectacular.  I have yet to be impressed with the Japanesse fighters in the UFC.  I do not know anything about McCrory except that he beat Pete Spratt.  I think Gono has a shot to win, but I will pick McCrory anyways.            

Marcus Aurelio vs. Luke Caudillo

Aurelio is a highly touted fighter from PRIDE, having a win on his record against Gomi.  Caudillo is not Clay Guida.  I think Aurelio will make quick work of Caudillo or impose his will toa  decision.  Aureilo will not loose his fourth fight in a row. I say he wins in impressive fashion.

Chris Lytle vs. Thiago Alves

This is one of my tougher picks.  I am going to go with Alves strictly because of this unimpressive record of Lytle.  This is one of my trap fights though. 

Ed Herman vs. Joe Doerksen

This is a re-match fight that Herman lost.  I do not think this is the same Ed Herman  Doerksen had no notice for this fight, which will hurt hims ome, but I have seen numerous times people come in with no notice and win easily.  Neither is a top tier guy in their weight class, but they can be second tier guys.  I will pick Joe Doerksen to win via submission in round two.

Joe Lauzon vs. Jason Reinhardt

I hope this fight airs.  I like Joe Lauzon.  Reinhardt has a good record, but he is much smaller than Joe, moving up to make this weight class.  He has never fought someone like Joe Lauzon.  On their feet it should be even with Lauzon having the reach advantage.  On the ground the size difference will be too much.  Lauzon having some B.J. Penn training will spoil the impressive record of Jason Reinhardt.

Frank Edgar vs. Spencer Fisher

I think both these guys are overrated.  Fisher is a good lightweight, but not a top five.  Frank Edgar is still unproven.  I say if the fight stays up Fisher will win, if it goes to the ground it will be Edgar.  I think it will be Frank Edgar via decision.

Karo Parisyan vs. Ryo Chonan

Ryo Chonan’s victory over Anderson Silva was amazing.  These guys are evenly matched.  I would add that Chonan is a good addition to the UFC and will be  a top ten welterweight.  Karo has improved constantly.  He is exciting.  I predict Karo to spoil the debut of Chonan via unanimous decision. 

Houston Alexander vs. Thiago Silva

Since Alexander beat Jardine he has been one of the big topics in UFC.  He has been heavily markted.  He showed that it was no fluke either.  Silva will try to go to the ground and there I would say has a distinct advantage, but I am picking another exciting first round knockout by Alexander.  A victory here translates into serious title contender. 

Rashad Evans vs. Michael Bisping

This stinks for a main event, but could still be a good fight.  The main events rarely are the best fights.  I lost so much respect for Bisping with how he ran around thinking he was something after the horrible split decision victory over Matt Hammil.  Rashad is a big lightheavyweight and size will be an advantage.  If Rashad goes and fights like he can he will have no probelm with the second rate Englishman, Bisping.  I hope he drops him like he did Sean Salmon.  I pick Rashad via second round TKO. 

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Brock Lesnar

I don’t know much about Brock Lesnar and neither does Joe Rogan.  I am fine with the UFC signing him, but why is this guy such a big deal.  He has one MMA fight.  They announced his signing like he was Fedor.  He jumps right into the UFC and is getting a tough opponent in Frank Mir.  I see two problems.  1. If Dana wants a guy to market, and wants that guy to be Lesnar, he might be setting him up for disappointment against the former champ Frank Mir.  Yes, I know of Mir’s accident and how he hasn’t looked impressive, but Mir could still shock people and hurt Lesnar bad, like he did Tim Sylvia.  Frank Mir is another of those guys who if he decides to win and try hard he is tough to beat.  So, no warm-up fight for Lesnar, he is thrown right in the mix.  Second, maybe Dana spent so much time trying to get the unproven Lesnar that he didn’t spend the time getting Fedor.  There are plenty of other guys to sign and market that are proven (Melendez, Fedor, Lindland, Filho, Kang, Sheilds, Lawler, etc.)  Why not pursue these guys?  Don’t get me wrong, by all means sign Lesnar, I don’t even care if you sign Kurt Angle, but let them work their way up the ranks.  Let them prove themselves before they get tge big contract and main event billing.  Lesnar vs. Mir is rumored to be a co-main event for the February 2, 2008 fight, come one!  You better have one heck of a good fight to go with it for the main event, like say Couture vs. Nogueria (I am keeping my fingers crossed).  I wish Brock all the best luck in the world against Mir.  I am not against him.  I just don’t understand why all the hype with no proven experience except WWE and some college wrestling, oh yeah and one MMA win against a nobody.

B.J. Penn, Sean Sherk, and Joe Stevenson

What a mess in the lightweight divison.  The problem is that Dana White spoke too soon.  The way I understand it, the fight between Stevenson and Penn is a done deal to happen in January 19.  This idea of an interim title is dumb!  There are so many what if’s.  What if Sherk’s suspension gets overturned?  Most would agree that the top three in the lighweight divison are 1. Sean Sherk 2. B.J. Penn and 3. Joe Stevenson.  So in my opinion if Sherk gets suspended I think you have to strip his belt and let the next two in line fight for the title.  If you want to give Sherk a chance to regain his title after hsi suspension then that is fine.  I would add that B.J. Penn when he wants to win is in a different league than Joe Stevenson.  I say that because sometimes he just quits fighting a la Matt Hughes.  Either that fight was fixed or B.J. gave up.  Dana White has created a mess at the lightweight divison.  The one certainty should be B.J. Penn fighting for the title.  The question is does he fight Sherk or Stevenson?  I would say regardless B.J. would fight both those guys soon.  Because I would predict B.J. to beat either of them and the one left over to get the first title shot.  If B.J. wants to he could hold the belt a long time, and then go take the welterweight belt away from Serra, Hughes or St. Pierre.