Breaking Down the UFC Light Heavyweight Division

The Champion: Forrest Griffin

The Top Contender: Rashad Evans

The Next Tier:

·         Wanderlei Silva

·         Quinton “Rampage” Jackson

·         Lyoto Machida

·         Thiago Silva

·         Rich Franklin

·         Dan Henderson

·         Keith Jardine

·         Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

·         Chuck Liddell

·         Luis Arthur Cane

·         Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

 

On the Rise: 

·         Luis Arthur Cane

 

Other Notables:

·         Brandon Vera

·         Mat Hamill

·         Stephan Bonnar

·         Jon Jones

·         Tim Boetsch

·         Steve Cantwell

·         Brian Stann

·         James Irvin

·         Eric Schafer

 

Scheduled Fights:

·         Steve Cantwell vs. Razak Al-Hussan at UFC Fight Night 16 on December 10

·         Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans @ UFC 92 on December 28 (For Title)

·         Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva @ UFC 92 on December 28

·         Matt Hamill vs. Reese Andy @ UFC 92 on December 28

·         Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson @ UFC 93 on January

·         Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Mark Coleman @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Andre Gusmao vs. Antonio Mendes @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Ivan Serati vs. Tomasz Drwal @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Jon Jones vs. Stephan Bonnar @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva @ UFC 94 on January 31

 

Match Ups I’d Like to See:

·         Luis Cane vs. Keith Jardine

·         Brandon Vera vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

 

Other Thoughts:

·         There are rumors of a Anderson Silva vs. Chuck Liddell match up at UFC 95

·         There are a lot of light heavyweight contenders and the match ups are being set.  The winner of Wanderlei vs. Rampage should get the next title shot, although the winner of Lyoto Machida and Thiago Silva should be considered as well. 

·         We are waiting for the debut of rumored UFC signee Glover Teixeira who has been having visa troubles in Brazil. 

·         The UFC could sign former EliteXC light heavyweight Rafael Feijao, which would be a big time contender.

·         The UFC has a clear monopoly on the light heavyweight division.  There are only a few fighters worth a  dime in this division not in the UFC (Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Vladimir Matyushenko, Ricardo Arona, Tito Ortiz, and Renato “Babalu” Sobral)

·         I looks like two solid light heavyweights have dropped to middleweight in Goran Reljic and Wilson Gouveia

·         The Ultimate Fighter 8 which featured light heavyweights is sure to place a few good fighters in the divison, but it will take time for them to climb the ladder.  Watch out for guys like Ryan Bader, Vinny Magalhes, Kryztof Soszynski, and Eliot Marshall.

·         It is somewhat possible to see Randy Couture take a few fights at light heavyweight and also to see Anderson Silva fight at 205 more often in 2009

 

MMABlog’s Light Heavyweight MMA Rankings

 

Here are my 205’ers.  The UFC clearly has the deepest and best pool of 205 lb fighters.  I only see a couple of non-UFC fighters being top 25 material. 

Rank	Name	Organization	Next Fight
1	Forrest Griffin	UFC	Evans (#6), 12/27
2	Quinton Jackson	UFC	W. Silva (#4) 12/27
3	Lyoto Machida	UFC	T. Silva (#10) 1/31
4	Wanderlei Silva	UFC	Jackson (#2) 12/27
5	Mauricio “Shogun” Rua	UFC	Coleman (NR), 1/17
6	Rashad Evans	UFC	Griffin (#1), 12/27
7	Dan Henderson	UFC	Franklin (#12), 1/17
8	Keith Jardine	UFC
9	Chuck Liddell	UFC
10	Thiago Silva	UFC	Machida (#3), 1/31
11	Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	Affliction	Moisa (NR), 11/3
12	Rich Franklin	UFC	Henderson (#7), 1/17
13	Brandon Vera	UFC
14	Vladimir Matyushenko	Affliction
15	Luiz Cane	UFC
16	Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou	UFC
17	Ricardo Arona
18	Renato “Babalu” Sobral	Affliction	Southworth (NR), 11/21
19	Matt Hamill	UFC	Andy (NR), 12/27
20	Tito Ortiz
21	Rafael Feijao	EliteXC?
22	Steve Cantwell	UFC	Al-Hussan (NR), 12/10
23	Stephan Bonnar	UFC	Jones (NR), 1/31
24	James Irvin	UFC
25	Brian Stann	UFC

Also considered: Jon Jones, Tim Boetsch, Bobby Southworth, Mark Coleman (Didn’t include him because he hasn’t fought again.  He probably is top 25 material)

UFC News: Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva at UFC 93 on January 31

There was a lot of speculation as to who Lyoto Machida’s next opponent would be.  Originally Machida was scheduled to fight Thiago Silva at UFC 89, but that fight was cancelled due to an injury to Silva.  It looks like that fight is back on and will take place on January 31 at what probably will be called UFC 93: Penn vs. St. Pierre II.

Tatame reports:

One of the most expected bouts of UFC 89, Lyoto Machida and Thiago Silva would face each other in October, in a fight that would force one of them to know how a loss tastes for the first time. After Thiago’s injury, that forced the disappointing cancellation of the bout. After many rumors, some secure sources informed TATAME.com that this fight will still happen, and it’s set to happen at UFC 93, in January 31st, in MGM Grand Arena, Las Vegas

The Title Picture in the UFC Light Heavweight Divison

In my previous post about the title picture in the UFC heavyweight divison I mentioned how the UFC’s match making has caused problems in the title picture.  The same is true of the light heavyweight divison.  Okay, Forrest Griffin is now the light heavyweight champion.  The question should be who gets the next title shot and what is the order of contenders.  The UFC made clear that if Chuck Liddell beat Rashad Evans at UFC 88 then he would fight Forrest Griffin in December for the title.  However, Rashad Evans played spolier and ruined the potential blockbuster fight.  Very quickly, the UFC gave Rashad the title shot for December.  Kudos to rashad for a big win, but most people would agree that even with the win over Liddell he was not the number one contender.  I believe that distinction has to go to Lyoto Machida who has notable UFC victories over Sokoudjou and Tito Ortiz.  I have no problem with saying Machida needs one more win, but he better not be ignored.  I have heard that he isn’t getting the shot first because guys don’t want to fight him and secondly because he has limited marketability.  So, what other options are there?  Here are my rankings in order of who I feel the contenders are right now.  I see 4 guys right now at the top of the heap that could get a title shot without much complaint from me.  Some like Rich Franklin may need one more win…

1. Lyoto Machida

2. Quinton Jackson

3. Wanderlei Silva

4. Rich Franklin

Needs one more win…

4. Rashad Evans

5. Thiago Silva

6. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

7. Chuck Liddell

Guys who could earn their way into contention soon…

8. Brandon Vera

9. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

10. Keith Jardine

The problem is booking.  Several of these guys are booked for fights.  It seems Quinton Jackson and Wanderlei Silva will square off November 15th, surely the winner of that fight will get a title shot.  Lyoto Machida was to face Thiago Silva, with the winner surely getting a title shot soon, however Silva pulled out leaving Machida opponent-less.  Shogun is waiting for a December opponent…possibly Chuck Liddell.  Keith Jardine is fighting Brandon Vera and Sokoudjou is fighting Luiz Cane at UFC 89.  That leaves Rich Franklin, Lyoto Machida, and Rashad Evans available for the title shot in December.  The UFC chose Evans, the weakest of the possible opponents for Griffin.  The heap is big and growing.  Contenders need to keep winning.  It looked like 2009 will see Machida get his title shot, but he may need two more wins.  Wanderlei or Jackson may get the next shot in the spring of ’09.  Rich Franklin could work his way in the mix too.  The picture won’t clear up either with a lot of solid guys in the top 15.

UFC News: Wanderlei Silva to Return in December

According to MMA Junkie, Wanderlei Silva has been told by UFC officials to prepare for a December return.  It appears he will be on the December 27 card which will feature a heavyweight title match between Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira as well as a possible match between B.J. Penn and Georges St. Pierre.  This is what Wandy had to say:

“I’m talking with (UFC co-owner) Lorenzo (Fertitta), they’re talking about December because it is the best event of the year. (Antonio Rodrigo) Nogueira is going to fight (Frank) Mir for the belt for the heavyweights. This is the best event. It’s much more promotion. They told me to be ready to fight in December. They gave me 10 (possible) names. My division is the best division in the world. They have so many names. I think they’re going to give a good opponent to me. I wanted to fight [Jackson] again and I think it’s a very good match. For me, I have time to fight for the belt in the future, no problem, I’m going to wait for my opportunity. I’m going to give my best on every fight. After I win my fights, I’m going to have an opportunity to fight for the belt. For me, no problem, I’ll fight with everybody.”

So, the question is who will he fight in December.  Process of elimination may help.  We would figure he would get a top 10-15 opponent seeing as how he just beat a top guy in Jardine.

• Lyoto Machida is booked for a fight with Thiago Silva
• Rameau Theirry Sokoudjou is booked for a fight with Luis Cane
• Brandon Vera is booked for a fight with Keith Jardine
• Chuck Liddell is booked for a fight with Rashad Evans
• Shogun should return in December, but Wanderlei won’t fight him
• Dan Henderson is booked for a fight at UFC 88
• Rich Franklin is booked to fight Matt Hamill at UFC 88

That leaves Forrest Griffin, Quinton Jackson, Stephan Bonnar and Goran Reljic

• I wouldn’t object to Wanderlei getting the title shot, but it isn’t likely yet.  They train together also, but I am sure they would fight if the price is right, but I doubt they can push aside Machida for Silva.
• Stephan Bonnar may be a good option as he should return by that date, but I don’t know if he is the calibur that Silva wants to fight.  He wants someone to get him into contention
• Goran Reljic os good and also possible, but not likely because he isn’t ranked high enough
• Quinton Jackson has to be the most likely but seeing as how he has all sorts of legal problems, I don’t know if it will happen.
• The other option is a quick turn around for someone fighting in Semptember like Chuck Liddell, Rashad Evans, Dan Henderson, Rich Franklin or Matt Hamill, or even Andre Gusmao.  Any of those would be interesting and UFC 88 may dictate Silva’s opponent. 
• The final option is some new to the UFC guy.  A new signing could be possible, but it is unlikely it would be someone that could jump right in and be cosndiered Silva level.  Someone like Vladimir Matyushenko is possible, but not likely.

 

UFC News: Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva at UFC 89

For a free SPIKE UFC show this is shaping up nicely.  UFC is confirming that Lyoto Machida will fight UFC up and comer Thiago Silva at UFC 89. 

Unbeaten light heavyweight sensation Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida (13-0) will look to keep the momentum going from his May victory over Tito Ortiz when he returns to the Octagon to face fellow unbeaten (and fellow Brazilian) Thiago Silva (13-0) in what should be an explosive clash on October 18th’s UFC 89 card at The National Indoor Arena in Birmingham, England

The winner of this fight should be in serious title contention.  If Lyoto wins the UFC cannot avoid giving him a title shot.  If Thiago wins it throws the divison into more turmoil.  This should be an interesting fight to say the least.  I have to wonder though who does this leave for Wanderlei Silva?  The rumor was the Wanderlei was asked to choose between Thiago Silva and Lyoto Machida as to who he wanted to fight.  That may have been true, but he won’t get either yet.  That leaves one fight: Rampage Jackson.  Jackson’s legal troubles may throw a wrench into that idea now, but I have a feeling that was the idea.

Mid Year MMA Awards

Best Knockout

Honorable Mention: Luis Arthur Cane KO Jason Lambert, Shane Carwin KO Christian Wellish, Murilio Rua TKO Tony Bonello, Matt Wiman KO Thiago Tavares

5. Anthony Johnson KO Tommy Speer

4. Wilson Gouveia KO Jason Lambert

3. Brian Stann KO Doug Marshall

2. James Irvin KO Houston Alexander

1. Wanderlei Silva KO Keith Jardine

Best Submission

Honorable Mention: Antonio Nogueira submits Tim Sylvia by Guillotine, Yoshiyuki Yoshida submits Jon Koppenhaver by Anaconda choke, Nate Diaz submits Kurt Pellegrino, Cole Miller Submits Jorge Gurgel by Triangle Choke

5. Demian Mia Submits Ed Herman by Triangle Choke

4. Frank Mir Submits Brock Lesnar by Kneebar

3. Rousimar Palhares Submits Ivan Salaverry by Armbar

2. Dustin Hazelett Submits Josh Burkman by Armbar

1. Shinya Aoki Submits Katsuhiko Nagata by Aokiplata

Best Fight

Honorable Mention: Shinya Aoki vs. Gesias Calvancante, Cung Le vs. Frank Shamrock

5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia

4. Urijah Faber vs. Jens Pulver

3. Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith

2. Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin

1. Miguel Torres vs. Yoshiro Maeda

Best Fight Card

5. WEC 34: Faber vs. Pulver

4. UFC 80: Rapid Fire

3. UFC 81: Breaking Point

2. DREAM 4

1. UFC 84: Ill Will

Upset of The Year:

Honorable Mention: Jason Day over Alan Belcher,

5. Thiago Alves over Karo Parisyan

4. Kevin Burns over Roan Carneiro

3. Fabricio Werdum over Gabriel Gonzaga

2. Josh Thomson over Gilbert Melendez

1. Forrest Griffin over Quinton Jackson

Fighter Of The Year:

Honorable Mention: Anderson Silva, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Michael Bisping, Georges St. Pierre, Diego Sanchez

5. Miguel Torres

4. Forrest Griffin

3. Thiago Alves

2. Shinya Aoki

1. B.J. Penn (2 Impressive wins over Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson)

Best UFC Newcomer:

Honorable Mention: Shane Carwin, Brock Lesnar

5. Rousimar Palhares

4. Dong Hyun Kim

3. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

2. Goran Reljic

1. Cain Velasquez

Worst Calls By A Ref. or Judges

5. Forrest Griffin over Quinton Jackson –  Not just that Forrest got the win, but that it was unanimous.  Many, including me scored the fight either a draw or to Jackson

4. Brandon Vera vs. Fabricio Werdum- Dan Miragliotta stopped the fight in round 1 when Werdum was mounted on Vera throwing down punches.  There was just 10 seconds remaining and Vera seemed to be defending himself well. 

3. Nate Marquardt vs. Thales Leites — Leites got the win, but lost the fight.  He lost the fight due to two points taken away from Marquardt.  One point was justified, but the other was due to elbow to the back of the ehad that wasn’t to the back of the head.  I will confess, that another point could have fairly been deducted for an illegal slam, but I hated to see Marquardt get a loss on his record that I feel he won

2. Phantom split decisions — How was Evan Tanner vs. Kendall Grove a split deicsion?  How was Heath Herring vs Cheick Kongo a split decision?  The right person got the decision, but how was it split?

1. Kimbo Slice vs. James Thompson – Dan Miragliotta stopped the fight in the 3rd round while Thompson was still standing and failed to stop it when Thompson was mounted on Kimbo raining down elbows

What’s Next For Forrest Griffin?

The new UFC light heavyweight champion of the world is Forrest Griffin.  While Rampage is beloved and great for the UFC and for marketing, Forrest Griffin has been billed as perhaps one of the most beloved and popular mixed martial artists in the world.  Forrest’s win was great for the UFC.  It was great the The Ultimate Fighter.  And it brings up the question as to who will Griffin fight next?  I do not know how bad Griffin was hurt, but I would have to think the UFC would love to see him fight in September in Atlanta.  He is a Georgia native and it would be awesome.  I do not know if the timing is right and that card already has one huge main event fight with Chuck vs. Rashad.  I still look to see him fight again by year end.  In my opinion there are 4 fights that could happen for him at his next fight…

1. A Re-Match with Quinton.  Quinton is now the number one contender.  I am sure he would love the re-match and would love to get his belt back.  The question for him will be 2 things. 1. How is his leg?  2. Will the UFC want him to win a fight before he gets a title shot?  I would say a re-match would make tons of money and people would run to see it, but I’d kind of like to see it built up a while and see Quinton win a fight to earn it.  If you do that you make for 3 blockbuster fights rather than one because Forrest would get one title defense, Quinton would fight once and then ideally you woul follow up with the re-match. 

2. Chuck Liddell.  A Liddell vs. Griffin fight would be a huge blockbuster.  You could market it as the coach vs. the student of the Ultimate Fighter.  You could bill it as the two most popular light heavyweights.  That fight would be huge, and if I was Dana I would hope that somehow Rashad gets out of that UFC 88 fight and you could make a huge fight in Griffin’s backyard.  I doubt it will happen like that, but some have suspectd a Liddell vs. Griffin year end fight.  Chuck has to get through Rashad first. 

3. Lyoto Machida. He has earned a top 3 spot in the divison.  However, many people feel like his fights won’t sell.  He is an awesome fighter and is feared by many.  He deserves a shot, but Forrest is on record as saying he wants nothing to do with Machida.  I don’t look for this to happen, but I do look for Machida to be scheduled for a big fight soon.

4. Anderson Silva.  If and only if Anderson Silva steam rolls through James Irvin you could see this fight happening.  Silva wants to fight more and this could be his ticket.  His next fight is July 19th and after that he is expected to fight Yushin Okami at UFC 88 for the middleweight title defense.  A December fight between Silva and Griffin could happen, but I don’t look for it.  The reason: I doubt the UFC would sacrifice Forrest that readily even to Anderson Silva. 

The UFC could shock us and put Griffin against some other good contender.  I never expected Forrest to get the title shot and he did.  It won’t be Wanderlei Silva. They could pull out someone like Dan Henderson, Thiago Silva, or Sokoudjou, but I doubt it.  We could see someone like Keith Jardine come in and fight him for a re-match or Shogun, but I doubt it.  I think Forrest’s next fight will be between the four names I mentioned above (Jackson, Machida, Liddell, or Anderson Silva).

UFC News: Rich Franklin To Fight At UFC 88 At Light Heavyweight

It appears that Rich Franklin will next fight on the UFC 88 card in Atlanta, which headlines Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans. 

A source closed to the Sept. 6 event tells MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) that Franklin has been targeted for the event, and the search for an opponent “is in full swing.” Franklin will likely be slotted for UFC 88’s co-main event. Franklin, who lost his title and a subsequent rematch to current middleweight champ Anderson Silva, most recently scored a second-round TKO of Travis Lutter at UFC 83. 

This brings about several question…

1. Will the move to Light Heavyweight be permanent? (If at all)

I doubt it would be permanent.  He needs to stay away from Anderson Silva.  If Rich, Anderson and Dan Henderson move up to light heavyweight it would take out the top three middleweights in the UFC.  I believe we could see the three of them fight in both divisons.  However, Franklin has cleaned out much of the divison except Henderson and Silva. 

After the victory, Franklin told MMAjunkie.com that a third fight with Silva probably wouldn’t be marketable. Many have suggested that a move to the light-heavyweight class could open some new possibilities, though Franklin has been quick to dismiss the suggestion. However, according to our source, he and the organization are now considering a move to 205 pounds, though it wouldn’t necessarily be a permanent move and could simply depend on whether or not he thinks the match-up makes sense. Although he’s one of the sport’s bigger middleweights and sheds considerable weight to make the 185-pound limit, Franklin recently told MMAjunkie.com that his body is better suited for the middleweight division. Although he’s one of the sport’s bigger middleweights and sheds considerable weight to make the 185-pound limit, Franklin recently told MMAjunkie.com that his body is better suited for the middleweight division. “I’ve been at 185 (pounds) for several years,” Franklin said in April. “I think that over the past couple years, I’ve really changed my body composition. It used to kill me to make weight, but now it’s much easier than it was three years ago, and I think it’s because my body’s changed a lot. I just don’t think I’m big enough to compete effectively as a light heavyweight anymore.” Franklin last competed at 205 pounds at The Ultimate Fighter 1 Finale in April 2005. He called it a “special case” since the first-ever Spike TV broadcast would reach millions of viewers and could catapult his popularity. After defeating Shamrock, the victory did just that. Franklin said if a similar opportunity presented itself, he may be inclined to take it.

2. Who Would Rich Franklin fight at UFC 88, at Light Heavyweight?

• Dan Henderson is already rumored to be on the card against Rousimar Palhares in a middleweight fight.  This is the fight I would want to see, but no need for it to be at light heavyweight
• Forrest Griffin would seem a likely choice if he loses to Jackson Saturday, seeing as how Forrest is a Georgia native.  I would almost expect Forrest to make it onto this card if he comes out unhurt from the Jackson fight, and my bet would be on a Franklin vs. Griffin fight (if Forrest loses to Quinton)
• A newcomer that I would never consider?? Maybe.  I would expect the fight to be a draw somehow. 
• A guy like Sokoudjou, Reljic, or Lambert — ehhh don’t count on it.
• Matt Hamill is on this card supposidly, that could happen, but it seems like too much contrast in styles and that may be a bad match up for Rich as Matt is big and strong even at Light Heavyweight. 
• A star like Wanderlei Silva.  It could happen.  That would be a huge fight.  Size wise it would be great for both.  A win would get Wanderlei a title shot.  Though I still like the idea of a Thiago vs. Wanderlei or even Wanderlei vs. Jackson III
• A guy like Keith Jardine — that is a good choice too.  We will see.

The UFC is stacking their Light Heavyweight divison.  Recently they have added Brandon Vera and Anderson Silva.  Though both those guys will alternate between their former and enw divisons it seems.  Dan Henderson doesn’t appear done at Light Heavyweight as Vera was offered to fight him at LHW.  Rich Franklin jumping up would add some serious force to the divison. 

 

The UFC Light Heavyweight Possibilities

With rumors of Anderson Silva moving up to an already stacked light heavyweight divison this is what the divison could look like.  Anderson is not the only rumored guy to move to the divison. Not likely that this pans out like this, but it is possible.

1. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson

2. Anderson Silva

3. Chuck Liddell

4. Lyoto Machida

5. Wanderlei Silva

6. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

7. Brandon Vera

8. Dan Henderson

9. Rich Franklin

10. Forrest Griffin

11. Thiago Silva

12. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

13. Keith Jardine

14. Rashad Evans

15. Matt Hamill

16. James Irvin

17. Goran Reljic

18. Wilson Gouveia

19. Stephan Bonnar

20. Andre Gusmao

21. Luis Arthur Cane

22. Jason Lambert

23. Houston Alexander

Talk about stacked full of contenders!

Who Will They Fight Next? (Part 1)

To me the most interesting match ups come at the light heavyweight divison.  There are really 10 to 12 serious contenders in this divison.  I will attempt to make match ups which I feel could happen.  These match ups are based on fighters popularity, desire of the fans to see the particular fight, the logic of the fight, the potential story line behind the fight, and the potential fight after.  Obviously the goal with the light heavyweight divison is to clear up the mess and make a clear top 5 with a clear number 1 contender.  The way I see it there are 12 guys in the hunt for the belt: Quinton Jackson, Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei Silva, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Lyoto Machida, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans, Keith Jardine, Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, Matt Hamill, and possibly newcomer Goran Reljic.  Here is how I would match these guys up (assuming Jackson beats Griffin)…

Thiago Silva vs. Rashad Evans

Keith Jardine vs. Forrest Griffin

Matt Hamill vs. Stephan Bonnar

Wanderlei Silva vs. Chuck Liddell

Quinton Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida

Goran Reljic vs. James Irvin

Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou vs. Shogun

• The winners of these fights move up the rankings and the losers slide
• The winner of the Wanderlei vs. Chuck II match would get the title shot and be the clear # 1 contender
• I gave Machida the title shot although Jackson may want and very well get his re-match with Wanderlei Silva next. 
• Most likely of these fights to happen: Forrest Griffin vs. Keith Jardine and Sokoudjou vs. Shogun
• I expect at some point we will see Wanderlei vs. Chuck II, and you cannot keep Machida from a title shot for long.  He may need one more win though. 
• I believe right now there are three guys that could see the title shot next and it will depend on the Jackson Griffin fight, they are Machida, Wanderlei, and Chuck Liddell.  Chuck won’t get Jackson next. 
• Closely behind them though are contenders Thiago Silva and Shogun.

 

New Talent in the UFC

One of the things that most excited me about UFC 84 was the display of new talent.  What a job by Dana White and the UFC finding new talent.  UFC 84 was a great display of hopefuls. I am stoked about it. Not only did 5 newcomers win their fights, but 2 guys who hadn’t won yet in the UFC won (Wanderlei and Sokoudjou). These newcomers won me over and I became fans of theirs.  The UFC has some top level new talent.  I liked rooting for these new guys and like seeing new talent coming in.  While we can be critical of the UFC losing some talent (Couture, Arlovski, Sylvia, and Ortiz), there are some new guys to replace them.  Let’s face it while the UFC has lost 4 or 5 stars in the past year, they have gained some future ones.  The guys they lost were past their prime anways.  Whata  job replacing lost talent.  The UFC needs to market these guys.  Put them on Spike’s UFC unleashed and put them on a fight night for people to see.  They all got good exposure at UFC 84 except Dong Hyun-Kim.  Let me say a word about the new guys in the UFC.

Shane Carwin: Out of the newcomers on the UFC 84 card Carwin was the most hyped.  I now know why.  He very well could hold a belt in the UFC one day.  I guess his back health is the one worry.  He is said to have great ground and pound and weaker striking.  He had one of the sickest KO’s I have seen with the mouthpiece flying out.  Shane Carwin is going to be super talented.  Can’t wait for his next fight.  Perhaps against the loser of the Vera vs. Werdum fight or a guy like Justin McCully or Collin Robinson.  Wuth an all around game like he has, the wrestling background, the athletic ability and the KO power he could be a glimmer of hope in a weak, weak divison.  The UFC has three bright stars up and coming in the heavyweight divison (Carwin, Lesnar and Velasquez) and somehow they have to delay them fighting each other and fighting top 3 talent as was learned in the Lesnar vs. Mir experiement. 

Yoshiyuki Yoshida: He very well could have killed Jon Koppenhaver in that fight.  That judo throw and the gator roll anaconda choke was awesome.  Usually your Japanese fighters have proven to be less than exciting and have not faired well in the UFC with the exception of Okami.  Yoshida will do fine and he is exciting.  I want to see him against slighly better competition because Koppenhaver was no match for him. Yoshida looked far superior in every way.  I wish he’s learn a little English though.  The post fight interview with Rogan was slightly awkward and a little English could help his marketability.  Perhpas he could fight a Burkman, Hazelett or maybe the Chonan vs. Carneiro winner is a good idea.  Yoshida will do fine in the UFC, great addidition and he and Kim could make UFC big bucks in the Asian market a la Bisping in England.

Dong Hyun-Kim:  Okay, so I watch Kim fight Jason Tan and all I can say is wow!  He is exciting, strong, and has vicious elbows.  He will be a serious force in the UFC.  He very well could be pitted against a guy like Karo next and I would consider picking Kim to win.  The UFC needs to decide if they think Kim can be something great in the welterweight divison, if they think he can they need to give him two more fights that he can win handily.  The flip side of that is beating a top 10 guy gives you instant credibility.  I know Jason Tan isn’t top level UFC talent, but man Kim looked amazing.  Why aren’t more people talking about that fight?  In my opinion, Kim could very well be the best of the newcomer bunch.  UFC 84 showcased some serious new talent and I am excited about Kim.  I liked him and am disappointed he wasn’t on the televised card.  I still hurt from watching his elbows.

Goran Reljic: Is the guy going to be mini-Cro Cop?  His kicks made me cringe.  Of course my knock on him would be all he showed was striking with the left side, but ouch those kids were hard.  Did you see how red Gouveia’s shoulder was?  I had Wilson Gouveia as ranked 12th in a stacked, stacked divison.  Reljic beat a top tier guy.  I don’t know how he would do against a guy like Thiago Silva or Machida, but he can strike with anyone.  He can take a hit too!!  Relijic has serious promise is this divison and does remind me of a slightly smaller and younger Cro Cop.  The Croatian can improve.  If I was him I would get with some different trainer for a bit to diversify.  I would think Xtreme Couture would be a great idea for him.  However, he is a contender right now!  My question will be how can he handle a aggresive striker or a wrestler like Matt Hammil?  Time will tell.  His future is bright.  I think a Sokoudjou match would be interesting, but I reckon he won’t get that highly ranked of a guy next.  Perhaps the Cane vs. Lambert winner. 

Rousimar Palhares: I know Ivan Salaverry isn’t what he once was, but that arm bar may well have been the best submission I have seen in a while.  He controlled Salaverry from start to finish.   He may be one of the best jiu jitsu guys in the UFC.  I wonder how he would do against another jiu jitsu guy like Demian Maia?  My question will be striking for Palhares.  I wondered why he didn’t soften Ivan up with strikes to the face while he was trying to sink in that choke.  He seemed pretty one-dimensional.  That dimension is top level and then some though.  He was a bright spot on the great card.  Can’t wait to see him in action again.

Antonio Mendes: He is the lone newcomer that lost at UFC 84.  Let me say just two things though.  First, he lost to in my opinion the most underrated light heavyweight and a guy that may well hold the title one day.  Second, he did very, very well.  He rocked Thiago.  His striking looks great.  I hope the UFC saw that and gives him another chance against a slighly less talented guy.  Give Mendes a chance to win against some poor sacrifical lamb in the light heavyweight divison.

Other New Talent:

Cain Velasquez: Many people say the UFC Hevayweight divison has collapsed.  I have said that.  The UFC has lost its champ in Couture and two of it’s top 5 talents in Tim Sylvia and probably Andrei Arlovski.  Mir isn’t what he used to be.  Cro Cop just didn’t work out well.  However, Carwin, Velasquez and Lesnar I believe are a step up in the long run.  Couture was great and I am a fan, but he in 44.  Sylvia is past his prime and Arlovski hadn’t shown consistency.  Cain Velasquez is going to be a star in this divison and it is prime for the taking.

Brock Lesnar: Lesnar is the one of those three new guys in the heavyweight divison to lose, but he lost to Mir and in that loss he showed he can fight.  He is the one of the three guys also that can draw a crowd more than anyone.  He could be UFC’s next biggest star.  We will see how he does against Herring. 

Chris Wilson: Wilson looked good in his loss to Fitch and I believe can do very well in the UFC.  I think he can be a top level guy.  Time will tell with Wilson.

UFC 84: Ill Will Thoughts

I have several thoughts about UFC 84: Ill Will.  Here they go…

• I was stoked to see the UFC show so many cards on pay-per view.  I believe 9 fights were aired.  I liked it a lot.  Of course it was because there were notmany drawn out decision fights.  I was gald to see Sokoudjou and Carwin’s fights.  It helps the UFC and their careers to get the attention.
• B.J. Penn looked amazing.  We didn’t even see his jiu-jit su.  He looked crisp in striking.  He was quick and he wore out Sherk with striking.  His cardio looked great too.  B.J. called for the G.S.P. fight and that could be interesting.  Could B.J. hold two belts at the same time?
• I don’t know what Sherk was doing.  After the fight he said he stayed standing because he was doing well striking.  What fight was he watching?  He could’t reach B.J.  He should have used his wrestling more.
• How about the show of class between Penn and Sherk.  After many heated words B.J. hugged Sherk and invited him to train in Hawaii
• Wanderlei is back.  He rocked Jardine.  Jardine was out cold.  And what a classy individual is Wandy.  He is what makes MMA special.  You cannot help but to like him.  He was really concerned for his opponent.  He is humble.  I am a Wanderlei fan.  I will root for a Wanderlei vs. Rampage fight in UFC.  It could happen and the UFC could market it as Rampage’s revenge.  That opens up many scenarios.  If Wandy wins he could get Chuck again for the title.  Still possible he drops down for the Silva vs. Silva match.
• Lyoto Machida was great against Tito.  Some accuse him of running, but he was elusive.  He was smart.  Tito couldn’t hit him.  He was fast.  He picked his shots well against Tito.  Lyoto is the real deal and will get a big fight next.  He beat Tito bad and I am glad.
• Who knows what all realyl went on in the UFC after fight press conference with Tito.  Tito is a loud mouthed jerk. 
• Thiago Silva has a tough chin.  Mendes may be for real, but Thiago is really for real.  He is a top 10 light heavyweight and is in the mix for a title.  He will get a top tier guy next. 
• Goran Reljic looked great.  He can kick hard.  He has KO power.  If he can learn to vary his kicks more he is a contender.  I moved him into my top 15 from that fight.  I’d like to see him vs. Hammil.
• Palhares is a force at middleweight.  What an amazing arm bar!  He better improve his striking though. He should have thrown some punches while trying to sink in that choke.  Nevertheless, oen of the best jiu-jitsu guys in the UFC
• Shane Carwin’s KO of Wellish was sick.  His bread and butter is ground and pound and he didn’t even show it.  He will be a heavyweight force.
• Yoshida looked great against Koppenhaver.  That choke was textbook.  We will see how he does against more serious competition.
• Kim will also be a force at welterweight
• Sokoudjou won…yay!  He didn’t look great, but he won, apparently with a hurt knee.  He called for Shogun, but I hope he doesn’t get him.  I want both those guys to do well in the UFC.  One of them losing would hurt their UFC careers bad.  I’d give Shogun someone like Wilson Gouveia or Stephan Bonnar to get a win under his belt.  And Shogun wants Liddell.
• This may have helped the UFC roster cuts.  Look for Salaverry, Koppenhaver, and Tan to be canned.  Also, Nakamura may be done as could Etim. 

Tournaments in the UFC

What if UFC had a 16 man tournament.  In other words a little bigegr version of what DREAM is doing with lightweights and middleweights.  A tournament would doa  lot of good things.  It would give an underdog the chance to win and fight the top dog.  You would have to have some type of ranking to do it and seed the guys like with the NCAA basketball tournament.  It would ease match making.  It would give exciting fights and intriguing possibilites.  Can you imagine all the possible scenarios of what could happen and who could fight one another?  I bet guys would fight passionatley.  There would be upsets.  So…I played around and came up with this…I took my 16 top guys in each class and made a bracket.  The fight one winner will fight the fight 2 winner and so on…

Lightweight:

Round One Match ups:

B.J. Penn vs. Rich Clementi

Clay Guida vs. Gray Maynard

Marcus Aurelio vs. Frank Edgar

Kenny Florian vs. Manny Gamburyan

Sean Sherk vs. Spencer Fisher

Nate Diaz vs. Joe Stevenson

Joe Lauzon vs. Tyson Griffin

Roger Huerta vs. Mac Danzig

Welterweight:

Georges St. Pierre vs. Chris Lytle

Thiago Alves vs. Mike Swick

Karo Parisyan vs. Matt Serra

Josh Koscheck vs. Ryo Chonan

Jon Fitch vs. Roan Carneiro

Diego Sanchez vs. Luigi Fiorvanti

Marcus Davis vs. Akihiro Gono

Matt Hughes vs. Chris Wilson

Middleweight:

Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites

Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Quarry

Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida

Yushin Okami vs. Demian Maia

Rich Franklin vs. Evan Tanner

Nate Marquardt vs. Jason MacDonald

Chris Leben vs. Michael Bisping

Dan Henderson vs. Jorge Rivera

Light Heavyweight:

Quinton Jackson vs. Goran Reljic

Mauricio Shogun Rua vs. Matt Hammil

Wanderlei Silva vs. Sokoudjou

Chuck Liddell vs. Houston Alexander

Keith Jardine vs. Jame Irvin

Forrest Griffin vs. Wilson Gouveia

Thiago Silva vs. Rashad Evans

Lyoto Machida vs. Stephan Bonnar

Heavyweight:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Dan Evenson

Cheick Kongo vs. Eddie Sanchez

Heath Herring vs. Cain Velasquez

Frank Mir vs. Christian Wellish

Fabricio Werdum vs. Antoni Hardonk

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin

Brock Lesnar vs. Justin McCully

Brandon Vera vs. Neil Wain

 

This all could make some interesting match-ups.  What you would do would be take all five divisons and make 5 fight cards with 8 fights each.  You could split them up or have a “lightweight card”.  5 cards would finish round one.  Then you could have two 10 fight card and that would finish round two.  Then you could have another card that would do the semi-final match ups and another card for the championships.  Try making an un-televised undercard out of any of these fights.  That would be awesome.  Of course you could put more thought into match ups and potential second and third round “dream match up” in where you placed fighters, but it is a great idea.  The one flaw is that if the UFC had one card a month this tournament would take 9 months to finish and that would keep a lot of fighters from fighting in that time.  I guess you could break it up and have non-tournament fights mixed in there too.  Just food for thought…

UFC 84 Predictions

Christian Wellish vs. Shane Carwin

Shane Carwin has never left the first round of a fight.  Nate Marquardt touts him highly.  He is rumored to be a great striker and a great grappler and jiu jitsu guy.  He is being hailed as the next big thing in the UFC heavyweight divison.  A win would ruin that for him.  I am not going to bet against Carwin in fact this is one of the fights I feel most comfortable with.  Don’t be shocked to see this one creep onto the pay-per view showing.  My final pick is Shane Carwin by TKO in round 1.

Terry Etim vs. Rich Clementi

Terry Etim is a great submission guy with 9 of his 10 wins coming by submissions. 5 of Rich Clementi’s 12 losses have come via submissions.  The experience would go to Clementi.  Terry Etim hasn’t fought since September.  Rich Clementi just fought in April at UFC 83 when he beat Sam Stout in a split decision.  This is a hard fight to pick because you have to assume that the fight will go on the ground and if it does Etim can submit Clementi quickly.  However, I am going to pick Clementi by ref stoppage in round 2. 

Ivan Salavarry vs. Rousimar Palhares

Ivan Salaverry is very talented, but for some reason hasn’t show all he can do.  He is very well rounded.  Palhares is a relative unkown, but apparently he can submit people because that is how he wins.  I struggled picking this fight because Salaverry may be done.  This is one of those win or go home fights.  I amy regret it but I am going to pick Palhares by submission is round 1. 

Dong Hyun Kim vs. Jason Tan

I have no idea what to say here.  The loser is going to be cut.  Japanese fighters seem to struggle over in the UFC with the exception of Okami.  Maybe Kim is Korean and he will win.  Jason Tan hasn’t beat quality people yet.  However, I am going to pick Jason Tan by unanimous decision.

Jon Koppenhaver vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

It comes down to heart and Koppenhaver has heart, but his head is messed up.  I pick Yoshida to win by unanimous decision.

Thiago Silva vs. Antonio Mendes

Mendes has a good record, but Thiago Silva has looked amazing.  I think he is a guy to watch in the UFC.  Silva is 12-0 with 10 wins coming by TKO.  I think Silva is going to KO Mendes in round 2. 

Wilson Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic

Gouveia is 4-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming in the TUF 3 Finale to Keith Jardine.  Now, Gouveia in his last fight was nearly KO’d by Jason Lambert, but he camback and won the fight.  Gouveia may want to keep the fight standing and may want to watch for Reljic’s armbar.  Reljic is a Croatian who has trained with Cro Cop.  I don’t know how good he will be, but we will see.  This may be a good fight.  I think Gouveia could easily win this fight, but I am going to pick Reljic by upset win and submission in round 1.

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

Sokoujou is still a top ten talent most places.  He is doing some training with Extreme Couture and his guys tend to do very well.  Nakamura has an average record of 11-7, but to his credit his losses have come to Machida, Shogun, Barnett, Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.  In other words he has some good wins and some good fights, but struggles against the top tier.  This may be a win or go home fight as well.  I look for Sokoudjou to win this fight by unanimous decison.

Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida

Perhpas this is the fight will all the drama.  Tito is most likely gone from the UFC win or lose.  We know of his bitterness with Dana White.  Tito wants nothing more than to go out with a win as a sign to the UFC that he is still a good fighter.  Dana wants nothing more than Tito to lose badly in this fight.  In fact he has probably given Machida all sorts of incentives if he wins.  Tito claims to be in tip top shape.  However, I have a feeling he has been distracted by talks of where he will fight next, the Apprentice, clothing lines, Jenna, other busisness ventures, did I mention Jenna?  I think in the end Machida is too good.  I wouldn’t want to go to decision against Tito, no fighter has been given more questionable decisions than Tito.  Machida is 12-0 and that against top notch guys.  He holds wins over B.J. Penn, Rich Franklin, Sokoudjou, Nakamura, and David Heath.  I am going to pick Lyoto Machida to win by TKO in round 2. 

Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva

This is set up to be a great fight.  Both these guys are good guys with great records.  The question for me is Wanderlei’s best days behind him?  Jardine in my opinion should be the one coaching TUF and should be the one getting the next title shot.  Jardine beat Liddell and Wanderlei lost to Chuck recently.  So I guess many people with figure that Jardine should easily beat Silva.  Not so fast.  I think Wanderlei’s training and hard word will pay off.  I like Keith Jardine, but I like Wanderlei Silva.  He is a class act and a MMA legend.  I am rooting for him all the way.  A win for Jardine ought to mean title shot.  A loss for Silva and some people are talking he is out of the UFC.  I doubt that yet.  With that said I will pick Wanderlei Silva to win by TKO in round 1.

B.J. Penn vs. Sean Sherk

If B.J. Penn looks like he did against Joe Stevenson it is good bye Sean Sherk.  I am rooting for B.J.  Sean Sherk is no puch over though.  Sherk has one many fights by ground and pound.  That may be dangerous against the jiu-jitsu of Penn.  Cardio will be a huge factor to me.  Sherk has an awesome record.  Sherk could win this one, but I am going to pick B.J. Penn by submission in round 2. 

Upsets to watch for: Terry Etim over Rich Clementi.  Keith Jardine over Wanderlei Silva.  Wilson Gouveia over Goran Reljic.