Breaking Down the UFC Light Heavyweight Division

The Champion: Forrest Griffin

The Top Contender: Rashad Evans

The Next Tier:

·         Wanderlei Silva

·         Quinton “Rampage” Jackson

·         Lyoto Machida

·         Thiago Silva

·         Rich Franklin

·         Dan Henderson

·         Keith Jardine

·         Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

·         Chuck Liddell

·         Luis Arthur Cane

·         Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

 

On the Rise: 

·         Luis Arthur Cane

 

Other Notables:

·         Brandon Vera

·         Mat Hamill

·         Stephan Bonnar

·         Jon Jones

·         Tim Boetsch

·         Steve Cantwell

·         Brian Stann

·         James Irvin

·         Eric Schafer

 

Scheduled Fights:

·         Steve Cantwell vs. Razak Al-Hussan at UFC Fight Night 16 on December 10

·         Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans @ UFC 92 on December 28 (For Title)

·         Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva @ UFC 92 on December 28

·         Matt Hamill vs. Reese Andy @ UFC 92 on December 28

·         Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson @ UFC 93 on January

·         Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Mark Coleman @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Andre Gusmao vs. Antonio Mendes @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Ivan Serati vs. Tomasz Drwal @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Jon Jones vs. Stephan Bonnar @ UFC 93 on January 17

·         Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva @ UFC 94 on January 31

 

Match Ups I’d Like to See:

·         Luis Cane vs. Keith Jardine

·         Brandon Vera vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

 

Other Thoughts:

·         There are rumors of a Anderson Silva vs. Chuck Liddell match up at UFC 95

·         There are a lot of light heavyweight contenders and the match ups are being set.  The winner of Wanderlei vs. Rampage should get the next title shot, although the winner of Lyoto Machida and Thiago Silva should be considered as well. 

·         We are waiting for the debut of rumored UFC signee Glover Teixeira who has been having visa troubles in Brazil. 

·         The UFC could sign former EliteXC light heavyweight Rafael Feijao, which would be a big time contender.

·         The UFC has a clear monopoly on the light heavyweight division.  There are only a few fighters worth a  dime in this division not in the UFC (Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Vladimir Matyushenko, Ricardo Arona, Tito Ortiz, and Renato “Babalu” Sobral)

·         I looks like two solid light heavyweights have dropped to middleweight in Goran Reljic and Wilson Gouveia

·         The Ultimate Fighter 8 which featured light heavyweights is sure to place a few good fighters in the divison, but it will take time for them to climb the ladder.  Watch out for guys like Ryan Bader, Vinny Magalhes, Kryztof Soszynski, and Eliot Marshall.

·         It is somewhat possible to see Randy Couture take a few fights at light heavyweight and also to see Anderson Silva fight at 205 more often in 2009

 

MMABlog’s Light Heavyweight MMA Rankings

 

Here are my 205’ers.  The UFC clearly has the deepest and best pool of 205 lb fighters.  I only see a couple of non-UFC fighters being top 25 material. 

Rank	Name	Organization	Next Fight
1	Forrest Griffin	UFC	Evans (#6), 12/27
2	Quinton Jackson	UFC	W. Silva (#4) 12/27
3	Lyoto Machida	UFC	T. Silva (#10) 1/31
4	Wanderlei Silva	UFC	Jackson (#2) 12/27
5	Mauricio “Shogun” Rua	UFC	Coleman (NR), 1/17
6	Rashad Evans	UFC	Griffin (#1), 12/27
7	Dan Henderson	UFC	Franklin (#12), 1/17
8	Keith Jardine	UFC
9	Chuck Liddell	UFC
10	Thiago Silva	UFC	Machida (#3), 1/31
11	Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	Affliction	Moisa (NR), 11/3
12	Rich Franklin	UFC	Henderson (#7), 1/17
13	Brandon Vera	UFC
14	Vladimir Matyushenko	Affliction
15	Luiz Cane	UFC
16	Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou	UFC
17	Ricardo Arona
18	Renato “Babalu” Sobral	Affliction	Southworth (NR), 11/21
19	Matt Hamill	UFC	Andy (NR), 12/27
20	Tito Ortiz
21	Rafael Feijao	EliteXC?
22	Steve Cantwell	UFC	Al-Hussan (NR), 12/10
23	Stephan Bonnar	UFC	Jones (NR), 1/31
24	James Irvin	UFC
25	Brian Stann	UFC

Also considered: Jon Jones, Tim Boetsch, Bobby Southworth, Mark Coleman (Didn’t include him because he hasn’t fought again.  He probably is top 25 material)

UFC News: Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones at UFC 94

It looks like Stephan Bonnar is set to return to action at UFC 94 according to MMABay I do not know how reliable the source is, so I will just say that the fight is possible.  Bonnar is coming off of an injury that has kept him out of the fight game for a year, but he is expected to be back and the mentioned opponent is talented newcomer Jon Jones who looked impressive in his debut against a top prospect in Andre Gusmao.  UFC 94 will take place Super Bowl weekend, January 31st and will feature a highly anticpated main event of B.J. Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre.

UFC News: Wanderlei Silva to Return in December

According to MMA Junkie, Wanderlei Silva has been told by UFC officials to prepare for a December return.  It appears he will be on the December 27 card which will feature a heavyweight title match between Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira as well as a possible match between B.J. Penn and Georges St. Pierre.  This is what Wandy had to say:

“I’m talking with (UFC co-owner) Lorenzo (Fertitta), they’re talking about December because it is the best event of the year. (Antonio Rodrigo) Nogueira is going to fight (Frank) Mir for the belt for the heavyweights. This is the best event. It’s much more promotion. They told me to be ready to fight in December. They gave me 10 (possible) names. My division is the best division in the world. They have so many names. I think they’re going to give a good opponent to me. I wanted to fight [Jackson] again and I think it’s a very good match. For me, I have time to fight for the belt in the future, no problem, I’m going to wait for my opportunity. I’m going to give my best on every fight. After I win my fights, I’m going to have an opportunity to fight for the belt. For me, no problem, I’ll fight with everybody.”

So, the question is who will he fight in December.  Process of elimination may help.  We would figure he would get a top 10-15 opponent seeing as how he just beat a top guy in Jardine.

• Lyoto Machida is booked for a fight with Thiago Silva
• Rameau Theirry Sokoudjou is booked for a fight with Luis Cane
• Brandon Vera is booked for a fight with Keith Jardine
• Chuck Liddell is booked for a fight with Rashad Evans
• Shogun should return in December, but Wanderlei won’t fight him
• Dan Henderson is booked for a fight at UFC 88
• Rich Franklin is booked to fight Matt Hamill at UFC 88

That leaves Forrest Griffin, Quinton Jackson, Stephan Bonnar and Goran Reljic

• I wouldn’t object to Wanderlei getting the title shot, but it isn’t likely yet.  They train together also, but I am sure they would fight if the price is right, but I doubt they can push aside Machida for Silva.
• Stephan Bonnar may be a good option as he should return by that date, but I don’t know if he is the calibur that Silva wants to fight.  He wants someone to get him into contention
• Goran Reljic os good and also possible, but not likely because he isn’t ranked high enough
• Quinton Jackson has to be the most likely but seeing as how he has all sorts of legal problems, I don’t know if it will happen.
• The other option is a quick turn around for someone fighting in Semptember like Chuck Liddell, Rashad Evans, Dan Henderson, Rich Franklin or Matt Hamill, or even Andre Gusmao.  Any of those would be interesting and UFC 88 may dictate Silva’s opponent. 
• The final option is some new to the UFC guy.  A new signing could be possible, but it is unlikely it would be someone that could jump right in and be cosndiered Silva level.  Someone like Vladimir Matyushenko is possible, but not likely.

 

Jackson vs. Griffin Press Conference

Some clips from Rampage Jackson and Forrest Griffin from the UFC 86 press conference. There are some good moments in this, including Jackson saying he thought Stephan Bonnar should have gotten the decision victory over Forrest Griffin at the Ultimate Fighter 1 Finale. Good watch…

Vodpod videos no longer available.

more about “Jackson vs. Griffin Press Conference“, posted with vodpod

 

The UFC Light Heavyweight Possibilities

With rumors of Anderson Silva moving up to an already stacked light heavyweight divison this is what the divison could look like.  Anderson is not the only rumored guy to move to the divison. Not likely that this pans out like this, but it is possible.

1. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson

2. Anderson Silva

3. Chuck Liddell

4. Lyoto Machida

5. Wanderlei Silva

6. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

7. Brandon Vera

8. Dan Henderson

9. Rich Franklin

10. Forrest Griffin

11. Thiago Silva

12. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

13. Keith Jardine

14. Rashad Evans

15. Matt Hamill

16. James Irvin

17. Goran Reljic

18. Wilson Gouveia

19. Stephan Bonnar

20. Andre Gusmao

21. Luis Arthur Cane

22. Jason Lambert

23. Houston Alexander

Talk about stacked full of contenders!

Who Will They Fight Next? (Part 1)

To me the most interesting match ups come at the light heavyweight divison.  There are really 10 to 12 serious contenders in this divison.  I will attempt to make match ups which I feel could happen.  These match ups are based on fighters popularity, desire of the fans to see the particular fight, the logic of the fight, the potential story line behind the fight, and the potential fight after.  Obviously the goal with the light heavyweight divison is to clear up the mess and make a clear top 5 with a clear number 1 contender.  The way I see it there are 12 guys in the hunt for the belt: Quinton Jackson, Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei Silva, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Lyoto Machida, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans, Keith Jardine, Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, Matt Hamill, and possibly newcomer Goran Reljic.  Here is how I would match these guys up (assuming Jackson beats Griffin)…

Thiago Silva vs. Rashad Evans

Keith Jardine vs. Forrest Griffin

Matt Hamill vs. Stephan Bonnar

Wanderlei Silva vs. Chuck Liddell

Quinton Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida

Goran Reljic vs. James Irvin

Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou vs. Shogun

• The winners of these fights move up the rankings and the losers slide
• The winner of the Wanderlei vs. Chuck II match would get the title shot and be the clear # 1 contender
• I gave Machida the title shot although Jackson may want and very well get his re-match with Wanderlei Silva next. 
• Most likely of these fights to happen: Forrest Griffin vs. Keith Jardine and Sokoudjou vs. Shogun
• I expect at some point we will see Wanderlei vs. Chuck II, and you cannot keep Machida from a title shot for long.  He may need one more win though. 
• I believe right now there are three guys that could see the title shot next and it will depend on the Jackson Griffin fight, they are Machida, Wanderlei, and Chuck Liddell.  Chuck won’t get Jackson next. 
• Closely behind them though are contenders Thiago Silva and Shogun.

 

Tournaments in the UFC

What if UFC had a 16 man tournament.  In other words a little bigegr version of what DREAM is doing with lightweights and middleweights.  A tournament would doa  lot of good things.  It would give an underdog the chance to win and fight the top dog.  You would have to have some type of ranking to do it and seed the guys like with the NCAA basketball tournament.  It would ease match making.  It would give exciting fights and intriguing possibilites.  Can you imagine all the possible scenarios of what could happen and who could fight one another?  I bet guys would fight passionatley.  There would be upsets.  So…I played around and came up with this…I took my 16 top guys in each class and made a bracket.  The fight one winner will fight the fight 2 winner and so on…

Lightweight:

Round One Match ups:

B.J. Penn vs. Rich Clementi

Clay Guida vs. Gray Maynard

Marcus Aurelio vs. Frank Edgar

Kenny Florian vs. Manny Gamburyan

Sean Sherk vs. Spencer Fisher

Nate Diaz vs. Joe Stevenson

Joe Lauzon vs. Tyson Griffin

Roger Huerta vs. Mac Danzig

Welterweight:

Georges St. Pierre vs. Chris Lytle

Thiago Alves vs. Mike Swick

Karo Parisyan vs. Matt Serra

Josh Koscheck vs. Ryo Chonan

Jon Fitch vs. Roan Carneiro

Diego Sanchez vs. Luigi Fiorvanti

Marcus Davis vs. Akihiro Gono

Matt Hughes vs. Chris Wilson

Middleweight:

Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites

Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Quarry

Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida

Yushin Okami vs. Demian Maia

Rich Franklin vs. Evan Tanner

Nate Marquardt vs. Jason MacDonald

Chris Leben vs. Michael Bisping

Dan Henderson vs. Jorge Rivera

Light Heavyweight:

Quinton Jackson vs. Goran Reljic

Mauricio Shogun Rua vs. Matt Hammil

Wanderlei Silva vs. Sokoudjou

Chuck Liddell vs. Houston Alexander

Keith Jardine vs. Jame Irvin

Forrest Griffin vs. Wilson Gouveia

Thiago Silva vs. Rashad Evans

Lyoto Machida vs. Stephan Bonnar

Heavyweight:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Dan Evenson

Cheick Kongo vs. Eddie Sanchez

Heath Herring vs. Cain Velasquez

Frank Mir vs. Christian Wellish

Fabricio Werdum vs. Antoni Hardonk

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin

Brock Lesnar vs. Justin McCully

Brandon Vera vs. Neil Wain

 

This all could make some interesting match-ups.  What you would do would be take all five divisons and make 5 fight cards with 8 fights each.  You could split them up or have a “lightweight card”.  5 cards would finish round one.  Then you could have two 10 fight card and that would finish round two.  Then you could have another card that would do the semi-final match ups and another card for the championships.  Try making an un-televised undercard out of any of these fights.  That would be awesome.  Of course you could put more thought into match ups and potential second and third round “dream match up” in where you placed fighters, but it is a great idea.  The one flaw is that if the UFC had one card a month this tournament would take 9 months to finish and that would keep a lot of fighters from fighting in that time.  I guess you could break it up and have non-tournament fights mixed in there too.  Just food for thought…

The Stars of the UFC

There is a recent shift in stars of the UFC.  Those stars are the great investments, the money makers. The stars are not necessarily your best fighters, but they are well liked by the fans and they draw a crowd.  The stars are the people that the UFC will market and set up to be successful.  The stars get the most money and the best fights.  The stars have a louder voice with the UFC brass.  Some of those stars have been discontent like Randy Couture, Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski and Tito Ortiz.  Those guys leaving hurts the UFC.  The guys the UFC recognizes as their stars are the ones they need to cater to more.  The stars are prized in all MMA organizations.  The WEC has Filho, Faber, Condit, and Stann.  PRIDE had Fedor, Cro Cop, Barnett, Wanderlai, Dan Henderson, Gomi, Arona, Shogun and the Nogueira brothers.  EliteXC has Lawler, Kimbo, Frank Shamrock, and Carano.  Strikeforce has Gilbert Melendez and Cung Le.  The stars are not always the champs, but they may be.  In the UFC there is a shift.  The old guard is moving on.  They are still there, and still draw a crowd and are still good PPV fights, but in a few years will be gone.  The old guard consisted of Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture, Ken Shamrock, Tito Ortiz and Matt Hughes.  There is a star level, then there is a second tier level of guys you want to hold onto at all costs, who have a following, and then there is the emerging star tier. Then you have your great fighters who perform in the octagon are respected, but may not have the charisma to be the face of the organization.  These guys can win and hold belts, but they won’t be the Chuck Liddell’s.  This system explains why the UFC gives a title shot and coaches spot to Forrest Griffin, who i no way has earned the title of number 1 contender.  He is good, but not that good.  He may eventually earn that, but this is premature.  Why did he get it?  Because he is popular.  He will sell PPVs and people will watch TUF because of him.  Personality will carry a guy a long way, just look at the Houston Alexander bandwagon. A lack of personality will hurt a guy, just ask Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt, who if they had the charisma would be stars because they have the ability.  These guys can move up and down these different levels, but some guys have already been crowed as stars and can do little to harm that.  Your stars are the guys you hold on to at all costs.  Your second tier you want to keep because they are your contenders and can become stars.  Your third tier you be careful with because they can become stars if you play your cards right.  Your fourth tier are some of the best fighters, they put on good fights, they win fight night bonuses and they should be signed and kep in the organization if you can.  The effect of a star leaving the UFC is much greater than when someone else does.  The UFC is hurt by loosing their four biggest heavyweight stars Couture, Cro Cop, Arlovski and Sylvia.  The UFC is not so much hurt by loosing Jake O’Brien.  It would be nice to keep O’Brien, but if you can’t you move on.  Also, you sign MMA free agents based on this tier.  I and many others consider Fedor for example a star level guy, an instant smash hit and a great investment.  You pay him well, but he will make you money.  Dana White apparently considered him second tier, and didn’t sign him.  My opinion you give the Fedors and the Couture and the Liddells whatever they want.  My system looks like this:

UFC’s Stars:

• Anderson Silva
• Georges St. Pierre
• B.J. Penn
• Rich Franklin
• Chuck Liddell
• Quinton “Rampage” Jackson
• Forrest Griffin
• Tito Ortiz
• Matt Hughes
• Wanderlai Silva

Second Level: UFC’s Near Stars:

• Brandon Vera
• Matt Serra
• Jon Fitch
• Diego Sanchez
• Dan Henderson
• Josh Koscheck
• Sean Sherk
• Kenny Florian
• Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
• Rashad Evans
• Michael Bisping
• Joe Stevenson
• Gabriel Gonzaga
• Chris Leben
• Karo Parisyan
• Clay Guida

Third Level: The UFC’s Emerging Stars:

• Brock Lesnar
• Roger Huerta
• Mac Danzig
• Joe Lauzon
• Cain Velasquez

Fourth Level: UFC’s Stud Fighters, but Not Stars:

• Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
• Fabricio Werdum
• Keith Jardine
• Frank Mir
• Thiago Silva
• Heath Herring
• Lyoto Machida
• Marcus Aurelio
• Yushin Okami
• Marcus Davis
• Patrick Cote
• Evan Tanner
• Stephan Bonnar
• Martin Kampmann
• Marvin Eastman
• Ricardo Almeida
• Mike Swick
• Thiago Tavares
• Nate Quarry
• Wilson Gouveia
• Nate Marquardt
• Kauhiro Nakamura
• Jason MacDonald
• Demian Maia
• Thiago Alves
• Thales Leites
• Frank Edgar
• Matt Hammil
• Nate Diaz
• Akihiro Gono
• Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
• Gray Maynard
• Hermes Franca
• Cheick Kongo
• Din Thomas
• Spencer Fisher
• Tyson Griffin

Note: The reality show really helped some of these fighters draw a fan base, because people saw them on TUF they root for them to suceed in their careers

Which TUF Season Produced the Best Fighters?

1. TUF 1

TUF 1 saved the UFC.  Dana White acknowledges that the finale fight of Bonnar vs. Griffin was a defining UFC moment, perhaps that is why Griffin is getting a title shot.  In this season you have 2 or 3 guys that could hold a title eventually.  Kenny Florian is looking dominant.  Diego and Josh both are doing well as is Mike Swick in the welterweight divison.  Chris Leben may never win a title, but he is winning a lot.   

Notable Alumni: Forrest Griffin, Stephan Bonnar, Mike Swick, Diego Sanchez, Josh Koscheck, Kenny Florian, Nate Quarry, and Chris Leben

2. TUF 2

This may not have as many stud fighters as season 1, but season 2 was good and produced 4 serious contenders (Stevenson, Marcus Davis, Keith Jardine, and Rashad Evans).   

Notable Alumni: Joe Stevenson, Luke Cummo, Josh Burkman, Keith Jardine, Rashad Evans, Marcus Davis, Jorge Gurgel, Melvin Guillard and Rob MacDonald

3. TUF 4

The comeback season was a success.  Travis Lutter lost to Anderson Silva, but still looked good.  We will see how he does against Rich Franklin.  We all know of Matt Serra winning against St. Pierre.  Clementi, Cote and Lytle all have looked good lately.  This season has a lot of names that UFC fans know. 

Notable Alumni: Travis Lutter, Charles McCarthy, Jorge Rivera, Rich Clementi, Pete Sell, Patrick Cote, Matt Serra, Chris Lytle and Din Thomas

4. TUF 5

This season is still developing talent.  However, these lightweights are all contenders. I think this season has 5 or so guys that could be top 15 material in a stacked divison. 

Notable Alumni: Joe Lauzon, Gray Maynard, Nate Diaz, Manny Gamburyan, Matt Wiman, Cole Miller, Corey Hill

5.  TUF 3

Not a bad season, but disappointing as far as how these guys have done after the show.  Bisping has done fair and dropped to middleweight and we will see how he does there.  Matt Hamill may be the success story of this show.  Kendall Grove has fallen hard.  Ed Herman can rise some if he keeps winning.   

Notable Alumni: Kendall Grove, Kalib Starnes, Ed Herman, Micahel Bisping, Matt Hamill

6. TUF 6

This show was the weakest of all.  We will see the effects of it.  In two years there may be two or three guys in the UFC from TUF 6.  Mac Danzig was so much better than everyone else on this season.  George can be decent and do well in the UFC.  Tommy Speer is so raw.  Matt Arroyo has good skills, but we will see.  Guys like Koppenhaver and Rollins have earned some time in the UFC, but I doubt it will last.  Watch for Mac though to climb the lightweight ranks. 

Notable Alumni: Mac Danzig, Tommy Speer, George Sotiropolous

UFC News: Stephan Bonnar and Patrick Cote Hurt

Stephan Bonnar has been forced to bow out of his April fight with Matt Hamill due to an injury.  Bonnar was just practicing his jiu-jitsu and heard a pop.  Initially it was diagnosed a partial tear in the lateral collateral ligament, but an MRI revealed a complete tear.  Bonnar will be out for six months meaning when he returns he will have not fought in one year since he beat Eric Schafer at UFC 77.   No replacement has been named yet, but there is plenty of time to find a quality guy for Hamill. 

Patrick Cote was scheduled to fight Alan Belcher at UFC 83.  This is a bummer to the Canadian fans who would have loved to have seen Cote fight.  I think it is a good thing for Alan Belcher as Patrick Cote is fighting very well lately and climbing the middleweight rankings which are open for the taking.  Cote has been replaced by newcomer Jason Day.  Cote suffered a sprained knee and will just be out four to six weeks.   

UFC Stacking Cards

UFC is stacking there cards of late full of talents.  There is so many fights on these upcoming cards I don’t know what to do and surely good fights will go untelevised. 

UFC 82 is so stacked that some great fighters will be prelim fighters.  UFC 82 includes a main event match between Anderson Silva and Dan Henderson for the title.  Jon Fitch will take on talented newcomer Chris Wilson.  Yushin Okami who has been fighting well will fight Evan Tanner who is looking to get his life straight and his title back.  The UFC will also welcome back Andrei Arlovski (and maybe say goodbye) who will fight Jake O’Brien.  The card also includes Heath Herring vs. Cheick Kongo, David Bielkheden vs. Diego Sanchez, Josh Koscheck vs. Dustin Hazelett, Luke Cummo vs. Luigi Fiorvanti and Jorge Gurgel vs. John Halverson.

Ultimate Fight Night 13 may be most stacked of all.  The main events will be Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon and Matt Hamill vs. Stephan Bonnar.  Also featuring a good fight between Karo Parisyan and Thiago Alves.  Houston Alexander and James Irvin were just bumped up to this card.  Also we will see a great fight between Spencer Fisher and Marcus Aurelio.  Din Thomas vs. Josh Neer and Clay Guida vs. Sammy Schiavo will be undercarded along with Tommy Speer’s first fight since TUF Finale.  Not to mention it has been romored that Frank Edgar would fight on this card.  Wow what a card!

There is some confusion on UFC 83.  Some have said it will be March 8, and looks lame.  Whatever the case may be, there will be an event April 19 (either 83 or 84) which will feature Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre.  Also,  Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter.  We also suspect both Keith Jardine and Shogun to fight here, but not necessarily each other.  In addition Mac Danzig will fight here. Another good fight here will be Rich Clementi vs. Sam Stout, but will probably be undercard. Wow!!!

The May 24th event will feature the much hyped and anticipated BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk fight as well as a couple signifcant lightheavyweight bouts between Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva as well as Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida, which could be Tito’s going away party.  MMAJunkie announced that would also include Ivan Salaverry vs. Rousimar Palhares a talented middleweight.

This is just the start, there are more fights to be added, but the first half of the year looks stacked.  You add into that mix TUF 7 and the title fight between Griffin and Jackson and TUF Finale by summer, it’s going to be a stack first half of 2008, keep it up Dana!

The effect of the Ultimate Fighter on the UFC

There is a lot of talk about which UFC divison is the stongest.  I have discussed my opinion before, but I was curious which divison has been best bolstered by TUF. Below I listed each current UFC fighter and their current divison.  Some guys have fought in the UFC and left for other organizations so I did not include them.  Some guys have fought at one weight and dropped down recently like Michael Bisping.  I made my decison based not solely on numer of fighters, but quality fighters and number of contenders in the divison from TUF. Here is my evaluation…

The least bolstered is the Heavyweight divison, because there are no current UFC TUF alumni in that divison.  Evans and Jardine comepeted in Heavyweight and then dropped to lightheavyweight.

The fourth most bolstered is the middleweight divison.  There are 11 TUF alums in the middleweight divison currently and none are real contenders right now.  You have a bunch of second tier guys in: Travis Lutter, Ed Herman, Kendall Grove, Nate Quarry and Patrick Cote.  Some of those guys are close to breaking through to contender levels.  I would say your most succesful guy has been Chris Leben and I believe Michael Bisping will be a contender, but contender is a tough word in a divison where Anderson Silva owns the belt.  I don’t think these guys could beat the top 4 or 5 in that divison.

The third best divison is the lightheavyweight divison.  However, these five guys are all above average guys.  I consider three of them legit contenders in the divison (Griffin, Jardine and Evans) and I consider Bonnar and Hamill the best of the second tier guys.  Bonnar and Hamill are slated to fight in April, the winner will become a serious contender threat and break into the top 12 in that divison.  I put them below the others sheerly because they don’t have as many alums in the divison now.

To be honest the second and first was a toss up between the welterweight and lightweight divisons who have both benefited from TUF competitors dropping to their weight classes.  Here are my arguments for both.  The welterweight divison has a champ in Matt Serra.  Also one could argue that they have 2 other top five fighters in Koscheck and Sanchez, making TUF alums 3 of the top five in that divison.  If you throw Marcus Davis, who is a serious contender is the mix you have some good fighters, not to mention guys like Mike Swick who have just dropped down.  The jury is still out on the TUF 6 guys.  We will have to wait and see who will stick around the welterweigh divison.  I look for Speer, Sotiropplous, and Arroyo to make a little splash. 

The lightweight divison has the most TUF alums by far.  Obviously, Joe Stevenson has been the most successful and could get a title shot.  They also have another top five guy in their divison in Kenny Florian.  Joe Lauzon is set to fight Kenny and could move into seriosu contention if he pulls out a win.  I wouldn’t overlook guys like Mac Danzig, Nate Diaz, Cole Miller, Manny Gamburyan or Gray Maynard.  Din Thomas has proven himself well and Rich Clementi and Jorge Gurgel are no scrubs.

If you made me pick the most benefited from TUF I would say the lightweights, with the welterweights close behind.  It is kind of interesting to note that in 2008 at least 3 guys from TUF will get a title crack (Serra, Stevenson, and Griffin) and possibly more. 

TUF will continue to have an impact on the UFC for the good.  They hope to help out the middleweight divison, but likely good welterweights will bulk up to get on the show and the best of the next season will help the welterweight divison most.  In my opinion, they need to help out the middleweight, but in order to do so the show has to feature light heavyweights.  I look forward to see the new twists and turns of TUF 7, and to see the impact of the future TUF alumni on the UFC.  Ultimate Fighter has been Dana White’s best move and he admits is helped the UFC greatly.

Heavyweights:

None!

Light Heavyweights

• Stephan Bonnar
• Forrest Griffin
• Keith Jardine*
• Rashad Evans*
• Matt Hamill

Middleweights

• Chris Leben
• Nate Quarry
• Michael Bisping
• Ed Herman
• Kalib Starnes
• Kendall Grove
• Rory Singer
• Travis Lutter
• Charles McCarthy
• Pete Sell
• Patrick Cote

Welterweights

• Diego Sanchez*
• Josh Kosheck*
• Mike Swick*
• Josh Burkman
• Luke Cummo
• Marcus Davis
• Matt Serra
• Chris Lytle
• Tommy Speer
• George Sotiropolous
• Matt Arroyo

Lightweights

• Kenny Florian**
• Joe Stevenson*
• Jorge Gurgel*
• Melvin Guillard*
• Rich Clementi*
• Din Thomas*
• Gray Maynard
• Matt Wiman
• Joe Lauzon
• Rob Emerson
• Corey Hill
• Nate Diaz
• Manny Gamburyan
• Cole Miller
• Mac Danzig*

*Is now fighting in a different divison than he competed in under TUF

UFC’s Light Heavyweight divison

The most confusing divison to me is the lightheavyweight divison.  They have beat each other up.   I do not know if the people in line for title shots are in order of who the best fighters are.  Here are my predictions…

1. Chuck Liddell’s next fight will be Keith Jardine.  He is already calling for Jardine. He could get another Jackson fight if Forrest beats Jackson.  Even though Jardine beat Liddell I don’t think Jardine is a top 5 guy.  I think Liddell is better.  Perhaps we do not realize how good Jardine is.  He did beat Forrest.  He lost to Houston Alexander, but maybe he overlooked him somewhat.   I still say Liddell would win a rematch.

2. I do not consider Forrest the number 2 lightheavyweight and reluctantly would have him in my top 5.  Who has he beaten before Shogun?  Stephan Bonnar (barely).  He lost to Jardine badly and now is getting a title shot because he beat Shogun?  Granted Shogun was widely considered a gimmer for the title, but come one.  The UFC likes Forrest and is handing him this chance becuase of what he has done for the sport and because he is very popular. 

3. Shogun is still one fight away from a title shot.  If he wins his next fight he will get to fight the winner of the Jackson vs. Griffin fight.  It would be a re-match either way for him.  I would bet on Shogun either way.  In other words, Shogun will hold the title in 2008. 

4. It looks like Lyoto Machida will fight Tito Ortiz.  I have Machida ranked four or five places above and would pick him to beat Ortiz who is busy with other things besides training, such as The Apprentice and acting. 

5.  Along with Lyoto Machida you have to consider Thiago Silva a up and coming contender. 

6.  Rashad Evans still needs a big win to be considered for title shots.

7.  It seems Matt Hammil and Stephan Bonnar will square off in April.  I would say Hammil can move up in the divison with a win here and some other people loosing

8.  Wanderlai Silva is not out of the picture yet either.  I look for him to fight a big name guy next, perhaps Shogun, Sokoudjou, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans or even Houston Alexander.  If I was matchmaker Joe Silva I would schedule a Wanderlai Silva vs. Thaigo Silva, Sokoudjou vs. Houston Alexander in a bout of strikers, and Shogun vs. Rashad Evans for a shot at the title. 

9.  Look for Joe Silva to take the six above mentioned fighters and square them off somehow.  The winners will move closer to a title shot and the losers will have to make up some ground. 

10. I am not sure if Dan Henderson is at Middleweight to stay.  He is still in my top 3 lightheavyweights.

11.  My order for who deserves a title shot right now (if they were to line up one by one without having to fight each other, so it won’t happen this way) would be: Forrest Griffin (just because I know he is getting the next shot), Shogun, Chuck Liddell, Thiago Silva, Wanderlai Silva, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Keith Jardine, Sokoudjou, and Tito Ortiz.

12. How can you not want to see a Chuck Liddell vs. Wanderlai Silva rematch.  I am hoping for it.  What a fight that was! It couldn’t have been any better, even a few years ago. 

What to expect in MMA in ’08

• I expect to see new title holders in every division but one and that is the middleweight.  All though Anderson could be challenged by Dan Henderson.  My picks for the title holders: Nogueira, Not sure about lightheavyweight, Anderson Silva, St. Pierre, and B.J. Penn.
• I expect to see a few more fighters signed to UFC contracts.  Highlighting the list: Matt Lindland, Gilbert Melendez, Jake Shields, and some other big name surprise
• I expect TUF to be a disappointment with Rampage Jackson getting a lot of camera time saying his crazy off the wall things
• I expect the middleweight division to get tougher
• I expect a few UFC stars to retire (Matt Hughes and Rich Franklin)
• I expect Sean Sherk to get another title shot, but B.J. Penn to beat him badly
• I expect the light heavyweight division to get crazier with guys like Machdia, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans, and Shogun in the title mix.
• I expect Chuck Liddell to avenge his loss to Keith Jardine by summer
• I expect that Shogun is still only one fight away from a title shot, I think that my top ten in the lightheavyweight at the top ten at light heavyweight, perhaps not in that order.
• I expect Dan Henderson to try Anderson Silva like he hasn’t been tried in a while
• I expect Jon Fitch, Kenny Florian, Sean Sherk, Roger Huerta, Matt Lindland, and either Arlovski or Cro Cop to get a title shot. 
• I expect the former PRIDE guys to turn it around in the octagon
• I expect another solid fight from Wanderlai Silva, can you say rematch?
• I expect the Fedor vs. Randy fight to happen
• I expect other organizations to become more of a competition to the UFC
• I expect Dana White to say many more expletives on national television
• I expect TUF alums to suceed this year even more
• I expect Diego Sanchez to drop to lightweight
• I expect Brock Lesnar to be a middle of the road fighter
• I expect Brandon Vera to drop to lightheavyweight
• I expect Bisping to cry when he gets beat in middleweight
• I expect Tito to loose in the Apprentice